Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Risk off. Grains are lower. SX is down another 20 cents and near 14.17. SMZ is near 423.0. BOZ is near 65.79. Dalian soymeal, soyoil and palmoil prices were lower. CZ is down 8 cents and near 6.74. WZ is down 5 cents and near 8.37. KWZ is down 9 cents and near 9.06. MWZ is down 9 cents and near 9.23.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are lower. Funds show no interest in buying grains due to stagflation worries.
Corn futures are giving back some of recent gains. Market may be taking profits at month end and approaching US harvest. Recent Pro Farmer lower than expected US corn yield offered support to Mondays high. Some feel Pro Farmer routes may have missed the best crop in IL and IA. USDA dropped US corn rating 1 pct to 54 G/E. Best crops are in MN, WI and IL. Lowest in KS, NE, IN and MO. One crop scout lowered his corn yield 3 bpa to 170. South America corn planting nears with USDA est Brazil and Argentina 2023 crop up 12 mmt from this past year. Matif corn futures rallied with corn crop rated 47 pvt G/E and 11 year low. Traders trying a find value with US corn crop harvest near, domestic corn basis strong, SA weather, EU feed shortage and questions about Ukraine export pace.
Wheat is lower but still near Monday’s higher close. Rumors that Russia will not extend Ukraine open export corridor deal appear unfounded. Weekly US wheat exports at down 19 pct from last year. US increased HRS rating 4 pct to 68 pct G/E. 50 pct of the crop is harvested vs 71 ly and 86 average. US HRW export prices is $50/60 per tonne higher that Germany. US SRW export price is running $20/25 above French prices. Russia lowest export price if the World. Canada harvest weather is improving with export supplies up 15 mmt from last year. Monday’s gains may have been month end short covering. World exporters less Russia stocks to use ratio is record low.
Soybean futures continue to trend lower. Talk of record US 2022 soybean crop and 2023 South America soybean supplies offered key seasonal resistance. China economy concerns and covid lockdowns raise concern about their commodity import demand. US soybean export are down 5 pct from last year. Crop is still rated 57 pct G/E. Best crops are AR, MN, WI, IA and IL. Lowest in KS, NE, IN and MO. One crop scout lowered his soybean Best crops are in MN, WI and IL. Lowest in KS, NE, IN and MO. One crop scout US yield is near 50.5. USDA estimates 2023 South America soybean crop up 30 mmt versus last year. Brazil soybean planting season begins on Sep 15. China closed major electronic hub in Shenzhen due to Covid lockdown.
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