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Retail Sales Disappoint in April


Stock index futures quickly advanced when the 7:30 central time U.S. economic reports were released.

The April consumer price index report showed a 0.3% increase as expected, and the consumer price index excluding food and energy was also up 0.3% as predicted. Some traders thought the consumer price index could come in higher.

Retail sales in April were unchanged when a 0.4% increase was estimated.

The Empire State manufacturing index for May was -15.6 when -10.0 was estimated.

The 9:00 central time May housing market index is forecast to be 51, and the 9:00 March business inventories report is predicted to be unchanged.

The fundamentals and technicals are becoming more bullish.


The U.S. dollar index declined when the 7:30 U.S. economic reports were released.

On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted industrial production in March increased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU, according to first estimates from Eurostat.

Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the European Central Bank is very likely to start cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting in June. In addition, ECB policymaker, Madis Müller said a June rate cut is very probable.

Housing starts in Canada were down 1.0% in April from March to 240,229 on an annualized rate.


Federal Reserve Chair Powell reiterated yesterday that the central bank will maintain interest rates at a restrictive level until there is confidence that inflation will return to its target, admitting that disinflation has been slower than anticipated this year.

Futures quickly advanced when mostly weaker than expected U.S. economic reports were released.

Federal Reserve speakers today are Michael Barr at 9:00, Neel Kashkari at 11:00 and Michelle Bowman at 2:20.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 71% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its September 18 meeting.

The fundamentals and technicals have improved for futures, especially at the long end of the yield curve.


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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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