Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are mixed to higher. SK is up 15 cents and near 14.01. SMK is near 439.2. BOK is near 45.52. CK is up 5 cents and near 5.67. WK is unchanged and near 6.60. KWK is unchanged and near 6.44. US stocks are lower. US Dollar lower. Crude is unchanged. Gold is higher.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 63 yuan in soybeans, down 23 in Corn, up 11 in Soymeal, up 154 in Soyoil, and up 176 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 133 ringgit at 3,568 (basis April) on export hopes, awaits USDA data.
Conditions in Brazil will continue to be favorable; though, there will be some pockets of fieldwork delays. A close monitoring of the distribution of rain in Argentina will still be warranted in the first week of the outlook due to some pockets of moisture stress.
USDA is expected to estimate US corn carryout near 1,392 mil bu versus 1,552 last month
USDA is expected to estimate US soybean carryout near 123 mil bu versus 140 last month
USDA is expected to estimate US wheat carryout near 834 mil bu versus 836 last month
USDA is expected to estimate World corn carryout near 279.8 mmt versus 283.8 last month
USDA is expected to estimate World soybean carryout near 83.3 mmt versus 84.3 last month
USDA is expected to estimate World wheat carryout near 312.8 mmt versus 313.2 last month
USDA is expected to estimate Brazil corn crop at 108.4 mmt, soybean crop at 132.4
One crop watcher estimates Brazil corn crop at 105.0 mmt, soybean crop at 130.0
USDA is expected to estimate Argentina corn crop at 47.0 mmt, soybean crop at 47.6
One crop watcher estimates Argentina corn crop at 44.5 mmt, soybean crop at 45.0
USDA is expected to estimate China corn imports at 20.0, soybean imports near 101.0
On Monday, Managed funds were net buyers of 12,000 SRW Wheat; bought 40,000 Corn; net bought 16,000 Soybeans; bought 5,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 8,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 26,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 394,000 Corn; net long 185,000 Soybeans; net long 75,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 119,000 Soyoil.
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