Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly lower before month end, quarter end, USDA report and increase US harvest pressure. US stocks are higher. USD is lower. Crude is lower. Gold ,silver and copper are higher. Trump working to avoid government shutdown. US weekly export data and USDA October report at risk. USDA stocks report Tuesday. Most of Midwest remains dry which should aid harvest. SA weather is favorable for crops.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.11. On Friday, soybean gained on corn on liquidation of corn and soybean spread. Trade est Sep 1 stocks soybean stocks near 323 mil bu. Soybeans trying to balance slow US export soybean sales vs tight old crop supply and USDA stocks report. One group est US soybean exports between 1,200-1,400 mil bu vs USDA 1,685. US harvest could be near 17-19 pct with yields reported above expectations. Tour of NC IL saw more soybeans being harvested vs corn.
CORN
CZ is near 4.20. Record US crop could weigh on prices through harvest. Policy continues that elevators refrains buying grains unless CBOT is open and trading. US export prices remain competitive vs SA prices. Trade est Sep 1 stocks should be near 1,337 mil bu vs USDA 1,325. One group est US corn exports closer to 2,600 mil bu vs USDA 2,850. Black Sea exporters looking to drop corn prices to compete with lower US and SA prices. Brazil farmer increased cash sales.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.20. KWZ is near 5.05. MWZ is near 5.67. Some still feel USDA may not be done in increasing Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU crops. Trade est Sep 1 wheat stocks near 2,043 mil bu vs USDA 1,992 last year. Trade est US 2025 wheat crop at 1,925 mil bu vs 1,921 previous. One group est World wheat crop closer to 414 mmt vs USDA 407 and 388 ly.
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