Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SH is up 11 cents and near 13.82. SMH is near 437.7. BOH is near 44.83. CH is up 4 cents and near 5.36. WH is dup 2 cents and near 6.68. KWH is up 2 cents and near 6.43. US stocks are marginally lower. US Dollar is mixed to higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. Short squeeze in Gamestop stock underscores potential markets volatility.
Heavy rains continue in S Brazil, slowing harvest there. Rains raising concern about soybean quality. Brazil soybean vessel line up 7 mmt. Could grow to 10-12 mmt. 5 mmt could be switched to US. Brazil truckers strike Monday. Argentina truckers blocking roads to ports.
Trade looking for more US corn and soybean sales announced today to China. China buyers do not need TRQ to buy more US corn. Attaché est 22 China corn imports vs USDA 17.5.
Asian markets higher. Crush margins positive. Rumors some US crushers not offering product after May.
Russia farmer not selling wheat. Feb-Mar price $320 vs export prices $302. WH weekly range 6.24-6.72.
Fact latest NOAA data shows La Nina strengthening could suggest warmer and drier US 2021 summer.
For the week, SH range 12.98-13.93. Some feel prices need to trade over 15.00 to ration demand. SMH weekly range 417-442, BOH 41.92-44.94, CH 4.92-5.39. CH may need to test 6.00 to ration demand.
Trade will be Watching todays US ethanol date and this week export sales data.
Some are using US 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,100 vs USDA 1,552 and soybean 65 vs USDA 140. SH monthly range 12.98-14.38, CH 4.79-5.41, WH 6.24-6.93.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 13,000 SRW Wheat; 47,000 Corn; 21,000 Soybeans; 6,000 lots of Soymeal, and; 6,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 14,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 388,000 Corn; net long 152,000 Soybeans; net long 91,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 102,000 Soyoil.
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