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Q4 GDP Up Less Than Expected


The fourth quarter gross domestic product increased 2.7% when up 2.9% was expected, and personal consumption expenditures increased 1.4% when a gain of 2.0% was anticipated.

Jobless claims in the week ended February 18 were 192,000 when  200,000 were predicted.

The Chicago Federal Reserve national activity index was 0.23 when -0.49 was reported last month.

Futures are likely to rebound now that the Fed minutes are out of the way.


The U.S. dollar index is a little lower and has underperformed the news in the last five trading sessions.

Consumer price inflation in the euro area was revised slightly higher to 8.6% year-on-year in January 2023, up from a preliminary estimate of 8.5%, but is still at the lowest level since last May.

The Confederation of British Industry’s distributive trades index increased to +2 in February from -23 in January. Economists anticipated a reading of -13. However, a measure of expected sales in the month ahead declined to -18 from -15.


Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s February 1 policy meeting, released yesterday, showed a large majority of policymakers agreed to slow down the pace of interest rate increases, delivering a smaller 25 basis point hike in February. Policy makers warned that the tightening cycle is not over as inflation risks remain.

Yesterday afternoon New York Fed President John Williams said the central bank must remain committed to its 2.0% inflation goal.

Federal Reserve speakers today are Raphael Bostic at 9:50 central time and Mary Daly at 1:00.

The Treasury will auction seven-year notes today.

Most likely the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its March 22 policy meeting, and there is more talk of another 25 basis point hike at the May meeting.

There has been lots of hawkish Fed speak lately, while the severely inverted yield curve is getting very little attention.


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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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