Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is down 2 cents and near 13.23. SMH is near 393.5. BOH is near 50.18. CH is up 2 cents and near 4.82. WH is up 6 cents and near 6.11. KWH is up 5 cents and near 6.37. MWH is up 8 cents and near 7.21. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Metals are higher. Coffee, cocoa and cotton are higher. Sugar continues lower. US Central Bank left rates unch and indicated 3 cuts in 2024.
CH is higher. CH remains in a broad 4.70-4.95 range. Domestic ethanol margins are weakening. Dalian corn futures are sharply lower. Brazil corn export supply is down but Ukraine and Argentina are up. New Argentina policy increase prices to farmers despite continued export tax. China domestic corn prices are sharply lower. Trade still worried about higher US Dec 1 stocks and USDA increase US 2023 corn crop in Jan. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 800-1,600 mt vs 1,288 last week
Soybeans and soymeal futures are lower. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil pirces are lower. There remains good Argentina rains. Potential higher 2024 Argentina supply is negative soymeal futures. New Argentina policy increase prices to farmers despite continued export tax. C/N Brazil is warm and dry with rains forecasted next week. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 900-1,800 mt vs 1,517 last week. US Nov NOPA soybean crush is est at 186.0 mil bu vs 189.7 in Oct and 179.2 ly.
Wheat futures are higher. Push pull wheat futures trade continues with overnight higher. Egypt announced a wheat tender for 715 mmt wheat Feb-May. Weekly US wheat export sales should be good with new China buying and are est near 1,200-1,600 mt vs 356 last week. It is raining in SC KS and NC OK. Higher global HRW supplies offsets tighter US SRW.
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