PMIs in Europe Weak
The U.S. dollar index is higher in response to weak European PMI reports.
The euro currency is lower after PMIs for Europe showed private sector activity in both the euro area and Germany stalled, while contracting in France.
The HCOB Manufacturing PMI for Germany sank to 41 in June of 2023 from 43.2 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 43.5 and showing the eleventh consecutive contraction for German manufacturing and the sharpest in three years.
Retail sales in the U.K. increased 0.3% from the previous month in May 2023 surpassing market expectations of a 0.2% decline.
Japan’s nationwide core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy products, increased 3.2% in May from a year earlier, exceeding market forecasts for a 3.1% gain.
Japan’s manufacturing activity fell back into contraction in June. The au Jibun Bank flash Japan manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to a seasonally adjusted 49.8 in June from a final reading of 50.6 in May.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are lower after Federal Reserve Chair Powell during Congressional hearings this week reiterated that interest rates will continue to increase this year, and he stated that two more rate hikes would be “a pretty good guess.”
In addition, futures are being pressured by today’s reports of weak PMIs for Europe.
The 8:45 central time June U.S. manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.5.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Weak European PMIs supported global interest rate market futures.
Loretta Mester of the Federal Reserve will speak at 12:40.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 74% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will hike its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the July 26 meeting, and there is a 26% chance that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged.
Federal Reserve officials are indicating there will be two more fed funds rate hikes this year. However, financial futures markets pricing suggests the FOMC can only increase rates one more time this year.
Most major central banks remain hawkish despite growing evidence of a slowing global economy.
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