Written Commentary
PLATINUM / PALLADIUM
The charts in the palladium market favor the bear camp again today with a 7 day low posted yesterday and trading volume in general this week picking up on the slight erosion in prices. Palladium ETF holdings declined yesterday and are running 18% below the beginning of the year. While the charts in the platinum market are slightly less negative than in palladium, a cluster of recent closes around $924.50 could be a very key pivot point in today’s trade. Like the palladium market, platinum has not shown positive correlation with US equities or benefited from dollar weakness and therefore we leave the bias with the bear camp and expect to see a retest of the August low on top of $900 before the end of this week.
GOLD / SILVER
The charts in gold and silver favor the bear camp to start today, as prices remain near 2-week lows and seemingly poised to make fresh 10-day lows in gold and a fresh 8-day low in silver. Fundamentally, several US equity market measures have already forged new highs in the early going the dollar is showing modest strength and gold closed lower in Hong Kong. While gold prices were higher in India, the bull camp might have been troubled by headlines suggesting Indian investors have become more comfortable with “paper gold” than before because of the forced closure of retail shops and that could shift buying from coins, bars and jewelry toward Indian gold bonds and or ETF-like instruments.
COPPER
The path of least resistance in copper today has shifted upward with another round of new highs in US equities, further signs of trade cooperation between the US and China, a 9-month high in nickel prices, a partial shutdown of a state owned copper mine in Chile due to heavy rains and a very bullish Citigroup prediction that Chinese copper demand will reach the highest levels in 3 1/2 years. Traders are also suggesting that good news from the virus treatment front and early signs that US infections might be leveling out provide additional foundation for a possible attempt at the $3.00 level in December copper.
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