Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
June Crude Oil was near unchanged early Friday as the market awaited the peace talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan this weekend. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that he has given an instruction for Israel to begin peace talks with Lebanon that would also include the disarming of Hezbollah, but Israel was still striking Hezbollah targets on Friday, and this continues to be a key sticking point for Iran. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said delegates from his country would not attend the talks if the cease fire was not extended to Lebanon. US Vice President Vance is arriving in Islamabad today to participate in the talks, which is given reports he was the dissenter in President Trump’s decision to join Israel in attacking Iran. Iran also wants to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz, including the ability to charge tolls, which seems to be a non-starter for the US and its allies in the region, as well as most nations outside of Iran’s erstwhile supporters.
PRODUCTS
Like crude oil, product prices remain inside their wide ranges from Wednesday, when the market sold off on President Trump’s announcement of a two-week cease fire late Tuesday.
NATURAL GAS
May Natural Gas extended its recent selloff overnight to its lowest level since August 2021, and the nearby contract has fallen to its lowest level since August. Record US production and mild weather are pushing US storage higher, and LNG export demand is not keeping up. Yesterday EIA Gas storage report showed a net injection of 50 billion cubic feet for the week ending April 3 versus and the average trade expectation of +46 and a five-year average change for this week of +28. Storage was +4.4% from a year ago and +4.4% above the five-year average versus +5.0% and +3.3% the previous week. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts have above normal temps across most of the lower 48, except for some below normal in the PNW and northern Plains.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
