Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
January Crude Oil was higher early Monday but found resistance at the 50-day moving average (59.97). The market found support from indications that the progress is slow for the peace talks in the Ukraine/Russia war. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy commented that “tough issues have yet to be resolved” following talks in Florida. Zelenskiy and company are in Europe to rally support from allies, and the US negator, Steve Witcoff, is headed to Moscow. News that OPEC+ had agreed to leave output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 at its meeting on Sunday may have been bullish, but it was not a surprise. Ukraine drone strikes damaged key equipment at the Russian port of Novorossiysk over the weekend, but Chevron later reported that loadings of crude oil at its Tengizchevroil venture were continuing.
PRODUCTS
Product prices did find support early Monday on reports of more drone strikes on the Russian port of Novorossiysk over the weekend as well as on a less optimistic view towards the peace talks in the Russia/Ukraine war.
NATURAL GAS
January Natural Gas was higher at one point early Monday and was for the most part confined to the upper end of Friday’s range. A winter storm moved across the northern US over the weekend pretty much as advertised, but it did remind traders that we are in a key demand period for the year, which is a change of pace from the warm trend earlier this season. Some bitter cold temps are coming in the wake of the storm. The 6-10-day forecast calls for much below temps in the northeastern quadrant of the lower 48 states, out through mid-December. The back and forth in the Russia/Ukraine peace talks add some choppiness.
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