Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. March comes in like a lion and ends like a lamb? SK is up 6 cents and near 11.47. SMK is near 331.5 . BOK is near 45.53. CK is unch and near 4.30. WK is down 2 cents and near 5.74. KWK is down 3 cents and near 5.84. MWK is unch and near 6.59. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
SK is near 11.47. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Palmoil resumes higher trend on talk of lower Malaysian production and higher China demand. N Brazil will be dry. C Brazil will see showers. S Brazil will be dry. US Midwest will be dry with rains in south and east Midwest. Current drought monitor index is not as dry as last year at this time but IA and Great lakes states are dry. USDA March supply and demand report tends to make South America crop adjustments if necessary. Some could see USDA drop Brazil crop 5 mmt to 151. Brazil farmer continues to be a slow seller of the 2024 crop.
CK is near 4.30. Dalian corn futures were higher. Key CK resistance is near 4.34. Trade above could suggest new Managed fund short covering. China is buying Ukraine corn. China seeing record feedgrain import pace despite record crop. S Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay are dry. More questions about second crop outlook. Most of US Midwest is warm and dry. USDA could lower Brazil 2024 corn crop but also lower US corn exports in their March 8 update. Trade will also focus on the first US planting intentions on March 28.
Wheat futures are lower. Central US is dry but 2nd week forecast has rains in the plains. China loading US SRW helping basis and spreads. Ukraine plus Russia Feb wheat exports est at a record 6.50 mmt. Below normal US, EU and Black Sea weather is needed to push futures higher.
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