Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Trade is struggling with what to trade; Slower demand for US corn exports or choppy in and out flow due to inflation threat and Trumps desire to lower US interest rates? US Dollar is lower. US stocks are lower. Citi looking top in stocks. Crude is unch at 72.20. Gold, silver and copper are higher on US policy uncertainty.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.47. For the first time, SK-SX spread is at a 2 cent carry. An overall drier C/N Brazil weather should help soybean harvest. Trade will watch a drier Brazil and Argentina forecast Argentina farmer increased cash sales. 2 Brazil state proposing a soybean export tax. US Midwest temps should warm, US domestic logistics are improving. Dalian soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Palmoil is at 3 month high. Some could see US soybean carryout 50 mil bu below USDA due to higher exports and crush.
CORN
CK is near 5.16. CK has rallied over 5.00 on increased volume and open interest. CK is finding resistance near 5.20. Dalian corn futures were lower. Crude is unch after Russian pipeline was attacked by drones and with US and Russia Ukraine peace talks. Better Brazil harvest and lower better Argentina rains could offer resistance to corn futures. Trade will be watching a drier Brazil and Argentina forecast. Some could see US corn carryout 35-40 mil bu below USDA due to higher exports offsetting lower feed and residual. Weekly US ethanol and export sales reports due to Monday’s holiday. EU consumer remains uncovered waiting for Brazil harvest.
WHEAT
WK is near 6.09. KWK is near 6.29. MWK is near 6.57. Wheat futures dropped Wednesday on warmer US forecast. Concern is that cold temps return week 1 of March. Ukraine and Russia weather is dry. Russia temps are cold this week with some snow cover. US plains are dry with colder temps. India is warm and dry. Most doubt US crop is a concern with snow cover except for west TX. Weekly US wheat export sales report delayed until tomorrow due to Monday’s holiday. Black Sea prices are steady with farmer selling and new export demand slower.
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