Written Commentary
MORNING LIVESTOCK FUTURES OUTLOOK
CATTLE COMPLEX
The spread between choice and select beef is widening. It is likely due to the increase of lean beef imports. In 2024 the US imported close to 12% of the supply of beef, fresh and frozen and so far in 2025 imports of beef are up 18% to 19%. Packers profit margins have gone back to negative. Look for packers to keep kill down.
PORK COMPLEX
The difference between the CME Lean Hog Index and the CME Pork Cutout Index is $8.17. It is packer friendly. Packers could increase slaughter as long as they keep the difference better for pork over hogs. Packers have dropped slaughter by revising it down in order to keep the supply of pork low.
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