Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold prices are little changed at $5,177, as a stronger dollar provided headwinds to gains, while oil prices resumed their rally. New attacks on oil vessels have dented prospects of an imminent de-escalation in the conflict; Iran said the world should brace for $200-a-barrel before two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters were set ablaze in attacks. Brent crude topped $100 and WTI futures climbed to around $95 per barrel overnight. Traditionally, geopolitical events such as the current conflict would be supportive of prices, but gold is likely facing resistance from reduced Fed easing expectations and liquidations in gold positions due to margin calls in other assets.
February’s CPI print did little to change the outlook for the Fed with inflation holding steady at 2.4%. The print came before the Middle East conflict, and reflected cooling core prices and slowing shelter inflation. However, the subsequent surge in energy prices introduces new upside risks to inflation that could delay the timing of rate cuts. Money market pricing now shows only one expected rate cut this year at the Fed’s December meeting, pricing in a total of 29 bps of easing by year end. Energy markets remain the primary driver of sentiment. The conflict in Iran has disrupted roughly one-fifth of global crude and natural gas supply as Tehran targets shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure continue. Qatar’s energy minister warned that Gulf producers could shut down exports within weeks if the conflict escalates further, a scenario that could push oil toward $150 per barrel.
Silver: Silver futures are up 1.00% to $86.39.
Platinum: Platinum is down 2.00 % to $2,158.
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices are lower, with benchmark three-month copper on the LME down 0.3% to $13,003, as risk-sentiment continued to be dented by expectations that the conflict in Iran will continue to drag out. Traders in China have also not been active on the bid, offering little demand. Rising warehouse inventories are also pressuring prices. Copper inventories at the London Metal Exchange rose by 275 tons to 312,350 tons on Thursday, the most since October 2024. Meanwhile, the large build in COMEX inventories seen last year, driven by concerns about potential US import tariffs, has stabilized, with stocks hovering around 545,000 tons.
China’s unwrought copper imports fell in the first two months of 2026, according to China’s customs data on Tuesday, with still-high prices and the Lunar New Year break keeping demand for imported units sluggish. Copper imports declined by 16.1% year-over-year to 700,000 metric tons in the two months from January to February. During that time-frame, benchmark three-month copper on the LME rose 5.91% in January and 1.41% in February. The Yangshan copper premium, a gauge of China’s appetite for imported materials, dropped to $20 a ton in late January, the lowest since July 2024, though it picked up after the Lunar New Year break.
Zinc: Zinc climbed 0.2% to $3,314.
Aluminum: Aluminum prices rose to their highest level in nearly four years on worries of tight supply to Europe and other part of the world. Benchmark three-month aluminum on the LME rose 1% to $3,492 earlier in the morning. The war in Iran has affected deliveries from aluminum producers in the region that account for around 9% of global aluminum supply and sparked fears of disrupted imports of raw materials such as alumina to these producers via the Strait of Hormuz.
Easing some of the immediate worries, Norsk Hydro on Thursday its Qatalum aluminum smelter in Qatar was halting the curtailment it began last week and would maintain production at around 60% capacity with reduced gas supplies.
Tin: Tin gained 0.9% to $50,100.
Lead: Lead rose 0.3% to $1,942.
Nickel: Nickel was steady at $17,700.
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