Written Commentary
MORNING AG COMMENTARY
Grains are lower. SN is down 4 cents and near 13.96. SX is down 5 cents and near 12.25. SMN is near 428.5. From 416-442 volume and open interest increased. BON is near 49.22. Open interest keeps climbing in down market. CN is down 5 cents and near 5.89. CZ is down 1 cent and near 5.14. WN is down 5 cents and near 6.55. KWN is down 6 cents and near 8.92. MWN is don 2 cents and near 8.71. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower, Crude is unch and near $71. Mixed news in Crude. IEA looks for higher China demand. China was 60 pct of April oil demand growth. China youth unemployment though hit 20 pct suggesting stalling recovery. Russia April oil exports export were 8.3 mil barrels per day. Russia April oil revenue increase 1.7 billion to 15 billion.
Soybeans are lower. Weekly US soybean exports were only 5 mil bu vs 29 last year. Season to date exports are 1,764 mil bu vs 1,784 ly. USDA goal is 2,015 vs 2,158 ly. Some est exports closer to 1,920. USDA est US 2023/24 exports are 1,975. USDA est US soybean plantings at 49 pct vs 36 average and 27 ly. IL is 77, IA 69 and AR 71. ND is 2. US Midwest weather is mostly favorable. Some feel World 2023/24 soybean supply will increase. This could keep a lid on soybean futures especially SX. Some concern about slower China economy offering resistance to commodity prices.
Corn is lower. Weekly US corn exports were 46 mil bu vs 21 last year. Season to date exports are 1,025 mil bu vs 1,541 ly. USDA goal is 1,775 vs 2,471 ly. Some est exports closer to 1,675. USDA est US 2023/24 exports are 2,100. Some are closer to 1,900. USDA est US corn plantings at 65 pct vs 59 average and 45 ly. IL is 84, IA 86 and NE 76. SD is 49. ND is 5. US Midwest weather is mostly favorable. Some feel World 2023/24 corn supply will increase. This could keep a lid on corn futures especially CZ. Some concern about slower China economy offering resistance to commodity prices.
Wheat futures are lower. WN is found resistance near 6.64. KWN found resistance near 9.00. KS May rally was on increase open interest and trade daily volume. Some feel that KC futures may be near a top due to fact demand is now slowing more than lower supply. MWN has found resistance near 8.76. USDA left US winter wheat crop rating at 29 pct G/E. KS 10, OK 11, TX 20, CO 26, NE 17, MO 61, OH 71, WA 64. US spring wheat is 40 pct planted vs 24 last week and 57 average. ND is 20 vs 10 last week, 46 average and 16 ly. There is still no word on the Ukraine export corridor extension. Turkey Presidential election will be in a runoff. N Africa could see some needed rains. Argentina could finally see a weather change and finally get some rain.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
