Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. 2021 almost over!! SH is up 4 cents and near 12.82. SMH is near 372.5. BOH is near 54.25. CH is down 1 cent and near 5.90. WH is up 1 cent and near 7.71. KWH is up 4 cents and near 8.08. MWZ is down 1 cent and near 10.26.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is mixed. Crude, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower. Gold, silver and copper are higher. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil, palmoil and corn are higher. India bought US soyoil.
US south plains dry. Russia cold. EU turning cold. Argentina and S Brazil drier forecast. NOAA US 30 and 90 day weather forecast warm and dry. NW cold. Long range rains Great Lakes.
Informa raised US 2021 corn crop 285 mil bu, soybeans 48. 2022 US corn acres 91.5 vs 93.3. Informa estimated US 2022 soybean acres 88.8 vs 87.2, all wheat 48.6 vs 46.7.
Weekly US soybean export sales est near 1,308 mt. Total commit 40.1 vs 53.7. China 22.2. Soybean market still concerned about US/China tension, US soybean sales to China below ly. Brazil soybean export year will start in 5-6 weeks. US soybean crush rate/margins supportive.
US weekly corn export sales were season high 1,948 mt. Total commit 38.5 vs 41.5 ly. Mexico commit 11.5 mmt, Canada 2.6, both record high. China commit 12.2. 2.8 in unknown. China continues to buy higher prices Ukraine corn (12 mmt) and 385 mt US sorghum. 3.4 total. EU corn crop up 1 mmt to 69.4 vs USDA 70.4. Imports down 36 pct yoy.Argentina corn crop 48 pct planted vs 55 ly. Crop 63 pct G/E. Crop 57 mmt vs USDA 54.5.
Tension between US, Russia and Ukraine may be easing. Increase tension bullish wheat. US wheat export sales 650 mt and higher than expected. Total commit 15.2 mmt vs 19.6 ly. Argentina wheat harvest 65 pct. Crop 22 mmt vs USDA 20. Australia crop 36 mmt vs USDA 34. EU wheat crop 130.6 vs USDA 138.0. Exports 33 vs USDA 37. End stocks 14 vs USDA 10. Baltic dry index vessel freight down. Cape Index down 73 pct from high. US barge freight higher.
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