Written Commentary
Morning Outlook
Grains are lower. SF is down 8 cents and near 10.48. SMZ is near 379.3. BOZ is near 33.13. CZ is down 4 cents and near 3.94. WZ is down 5 cents and near 5.92. KWZ is down 4 cents and near 5.37.Looks like another risk off day for grains before US election and increase cases of Covid. US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. Gold is slightly higher. US Dollar is mixed.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 15 yuan in soybeans, down 28 in Corn, down 3 in Soymeal, down 60 in Soyoil, and down 96 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 32 ringgit at 2,979 (basis January) ahead of U.S. elections, economic lockdowns.
US Midwest 6 to 10 day has dry weather to dominate with temps running above average. The Southern Plains might have front brings some precip to the eastern sections of KS, OK early next week. Temps run above average.
The Brazilian growing regions has hit and miss, moderate rainfall amounts for 75% of the area over the next 6 to 10 days. Temps will be below average for the week ahead turning to average to a bit above by the end of the week/weekend. The Argentine growing regions continues with limited rainfall over the next 6 to 10 days. Temps run below average
US corn is still cheapest in World for export demand for US 2020/21 corn carryout range from 1,806-1,921 versus USDA 2,167. 2021/21 1,866-2,137. Most look for US 2020/21 corn exports to be closer to 2,600 versus USDA 2,325.
Brazil 2021 soybean plantings well below average/ly. 40 pct of crop will be planted in November.
Some fear there are signs that drier biased La Nina weather could continue in South Brazil and Argentina.
Guesses for US 2020/21 soybean carryout ranged from 167-203 versus USDA 290. 2021/21 169-300. Most look for US 2020/21 soybean exports to be closer to 2,350 versus USDA 2,200
Wheat futures volatility will continue. Long term weather suggest dry US plains and Russia. End user should add to coverage on further decline. Famers should increase sales above 6.00 WN, 5.75 KWN.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 SRW Wheat; bought 3,000 Corn; bought 3,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 35,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 220,000 Corn; net long 209,000 Soybeans; net long 81,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 89,000 Soyoil.
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