Grain Futures Outlook
New Month. Grains are mixed. SX is up 1 cent and near 9.54. SMV is unchanged and near 306.9. BOV is up 27 and near 33.00. CZ is down 4 cents and near 3.53. WZ is unchanged and near 5.52. KWZ is up 1 cent and near 4.76. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.US election watch/poll has POTUS narrowing gap versus Biden.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 25 yuan in soybeans, up 9 in Corn, down 26 in Soymeal, down 10 in Soyoil, and up 24 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 54 ringgit at 2,792 (basis November) at midsession on support from rival oils and, despite weak August export estimates.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the US Midwest has mixed ideas from the models with both seeing a system for later Monday into Wednesday. The GFS has light to moderate rains for southern MN, northeast IA, and southern WI, northern IL, and most of MI. The European model has light to moderate rains for all regions of the Midwest. Temps will be falling to below average by the weekend and the first half of next week.
The 11 to 16 day outlook for the Midwest now has average to above average temps and below average precip for the region.
USDA dropped US corn crop rating to 62 pct good/ex. Biggest drop was in IA, MI. One crop watcher lowered his US corn yield to 176.0 and crop to 14,860. They estimate 25 pct of crop yield below trend including IA,OH, 24 pct trend yield MI, ND, NE and 42 pct above trend IL, IN, KY, MN, MO, SD and WI. Stone estimated US crop near 15,085 and yield near 179.6.
USDA dropped US soybean crop rating to 66 pct good/ex. Biggest drop was in IA, MI, NE. One crop watcher lowered his US soybean yield to 51.0 and crop to 4.400. They estimate 13 pct of crop yield below trend including IA,MS, 16pct trend yield OH, ND, TN and 65 pct above trend AR, IL, IN, KY, MN, NE, MO, SD and WI. Stone estimated US crop near 4,388 and yield near 52.9.
U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running up 2% ahead of a year ago (up 2% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 1% increase on the year, Corn 12% behind a year ago (13% last week) with the USDA down 13% for the season and Soybeans are down 6% on the year (down 5% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
Ukraine estimated their 2020 corn crop near 33.0 versus USDA 39.5 and exports at 26 mmt versus USDA 33.5.
On Monday Managed funds were net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net even in Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans; net bought 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 20,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 49,000 Corn; net long 151,000 Soybeans; net long 15,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 69,000 Soyoil.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.