Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. US PPI higher than expected and could reduce chances of Fed rate cut. USD is lower. Crude is lower and near $61.5. Trump will meet Putin today in Alaska with low expectations. New Russian sanctions possible without a deal. Carboard box sales are declining and lowest Q2 reading since 2015. Some say a key indicator of the economy slowing.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.32. Sep soybean board crush down to 1.95 vs 2.37 on Aug 5. Oil share down to 47.7 from a high of 52.5. Rumors suggest EPA could announce small refiner waivers before Labor day and offset RVO. Dalian soybean, soymeal are lower, RSO is lower and palmoil is higher. Most of US Midwest will be dry and warm over next 10 days. Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour next week. Since 2003, Tour yield has been below USDA Sep and final yield 70 pct of time. US soybean export commit is near 51.1 mmt vs USDA goal of 51.0. China continues to show no interest in US soybeans. Conab est the Brazil soybean crop at 169.6 mmt with private est in mid 170’s. India Oct-July vegoil imports were 13.1 mmt vs 13.3 ly. Palmoil was 6.2 mmt vs 7.6 ly and soyoil 4.4 mmt vs 2.4.
CORN
CZ is near 3.99. CZ resistance now 4.00 then 4.10. Dalian corn was lower and near contract low weekly close. Most of US Midwest will be dry and warm over next 10 days. Global consumer are adding to nearby coverage. US 24/25 corn export commit is 70.5 mmt vs USDA 71.6. 25/26 export commit is 13.8 mmt and 4 year high. Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour next week. Since 2003, Tour yield has been below USDA Sep and final yield 57 pct of time. Ukraine Sep-July corn exports were 20.1 mmt vs 28.8 ly. Conab est Brazil corn crop at 137 mmt vs USDA 132 with private est in mid 140’s. USDA announced 132 mt US 25/26 corn to Spain and 136 mt to S Korea.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.24. KWZ is near 5.24. MWZ is near 5.93. US prices near lower end of projected range. US wheat export commit is 11.0 mmt vs 8.9 ly. Commit is up 24 pct vs ly and USDA up 6. HRW commit is at 4.4 mmt and 10 year high. France is seeing more Morocco vessels and may have sold wheat to Bangladesh. C EU wheat quality is better than expected. Germany raised their crop est to 22.4 mmt vs 21.5 previous. Ukraine Sep-July wheat exports were 12.4 mmt vs 17.8 ly.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
