Written Commentary
Grains Outlook
Month end. USDA report day. Grains are mixed. SX & CZ are down. WZ is up. Stocks may be reacting to last night Presidential debate. US Dollar is higher. Crude and Gold are lower this am.
Quarter end. Month end. USDA report day. Grains are mixed. SX is down 3 cents and near 9.89. SMZ is near 331.4. BOZ is near 32.21. CZ is down 2 cents and near 3.62. WZ is up 3 cents and near 5.52. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 4.79. US stocks are lower. Stocks may be reacting to last night Presidential debate. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. China Holiday starts Thursday.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 1 cent; HRW up 5; HRS down 9; Corn is up 6 cents; Soybeans up 36; Soymeal up $19.00, and; Soyoil down 60 points. Crushing margins are down 1 cent at $0.94; Oil share down 2% at 32%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 42 yuan in soybeans, down 8 in Corn, unchanged in Soymeal, down 146 in Soyoil, and down 148 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 59 ringgit at 2,718 (basis December) its first monthly drop in five as rival vegoil prices fell (Dalian) and weaker crude oil limited buying interest.
The US Midwest 6 to 10 day forecast has dry weather building into all of the region by Monday and persist through the rest of next week. Temps will continue to be running below average across the region. The Southern Plains over the 6 to 10 day period sees little to no rainfall with light rains possible in the eastern sections of the region. Temps will be running below average with some average temps in the far west.
The Brazilian growing regions has moderate rainfall for mostly Rio Grande do Sul in both the 5 and 6 to 10 day outlook with little in the way of rains for the rest of the growing areas. The Argentine growing regions will see light to moderate rainfall with 70% coverage over the next 5 days. The 6 to 10 day outlook has light rainfall in most areas with a better pick-up of precip for the southern growing areas.
It remains too dry for much planting of winter crop from Russia’s Southern Region into Kazakhstan and from Ukrainian areas near Moldova through Bulgaria and including southeastern Romania. Favorable summer crop harvest and winter crop planting conditions will occur in other areas. Rain is seriously needed from the middle and lower Volga River Basin to western Kazakhstan and Russia’s Southern Region.
US grains are still trying to digest global weather, Covid impact of global food and fuel demand and economic recovery, South America, Russia and US south plains dry weather, todays USDA grain stocks report, large managed fund net long, US harvest yield reports and US farmer selling or not to find price direction. Bulls hope large US soybean and corn export demand will absorb US farmer selling. Soybean and corn technical signals have tuned negative. SX support 9.80. CZ support 3.59. WZ range 5.40-5.60.
On Wednesday, Managed funds net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 10,000 Corn; sold 4,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 90,000 Corn; net long 187,000 Soybeans; net long 57,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 95,000 Soyoil.
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