Written Commentary
Morning Outlook
Grains are mixed. SX is unchanged and near 10.674 SMZ is near 385.6. BOZ is near 33.71, CZ is up 1 cent and near 4.17. WZ is up 5 cents and near 6.28. KWZ is up 5 cents and near 5.66. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 1 cent; HRW up 2; HRS up 17; Corn is up 13 cents; Soybeans up 17; Soymeal up $13.00, and; Soyoil up 45 points. Crushing margins are up 17 cents at $1.26; Oil share is down 1% at 30%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 15 yuan in soybeans, down 2 in Corn, down 22 in Soymeal, up 118 in Soyoil, and up 110 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were flat at 2,943 (basis January) mostly on position-evening
Last evening’s GFS model run continued to suggest some meaningful precipitation in West Texas and the southwestern Hard Red Winter Wheat Region Sunday through Tuesday. South America is still expected to have improvement of weather over the next two weeks. Russia GFS model shows light rains.
US corn futures made new highs this week on a slowdown in US harvest, lack of US and Argentina farmer selling and talk that higher demand for US export could tighten US corn balance sheet. Large Manage fund long could offer resistance if global weather turns normal or importers slow buying US corn.
Soybean futures have also made new highs on concern over tight Brazil and Argentina soybean old crop supplies and talk of increase export demand for US soybeans. Potential slowdown of Argentina soybean crush has also pushed US soymeal futures to new highs. Soyoil prices found support from higher World palmoil and sunoil prices.
Wheat futures tested key resistance on concern over Russia and US HRW 2021 crops. Forecast of some showers in Russia and US HRW areas offered resistance.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 5,000 SRW Wheat; bought 8,000 Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 61,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 253,000 Corn; net long 256,000 Soybeans; net long 99,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 84,000 Soyoil.
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