Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Next USDA report Dec 9. US stocks are higher. USD is higher. Crude is unch near $59. OPEC agreed to no increase in production. Gold, silver and copper are lower. Bitcoin is higher. US will see below normal temps. The US soft wheat will be protected from the bitter cold by a deep layer of snow. South America weather mostly favorable but dry S Brail will need to be watched.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.33. US soybean exports were 920 mt. Season to date exports are down 45 pct vs last year and USDA est of down 13. There were no new daily sales announced to China. Soymeal futures may be in trouble both technically and fundamentally with SMF testing Nov low. BOF testing Nov high near 53 on oil share recovering. There was talk India washed out Argentina soyoil in favor of China soyoil. ABARE est Australia canola crop at 7.2 mmt and 2nd higher on record. SF continues to trade around the 20 DMA with support near 11.20 and resistance near 11.40.
CORN
CH is near 4.44. US cash basis is firm. US corn exports were near 1,421 mt, Season to date exports are up 71 pct vs last year and USDA est of up 9. Corn lacks new fresh news. Dalian corn futures continue to trade higher due to debate on size of local crop. There is talk China may have bought a few cargoes of US sorghum. CH between 4.40 support and 4.50 resistance. Brazil corn futures near 7 month high due in part to weaker Real currency. Some have lowered Brazil corn crop est to 134 mmt due to late planting due to late soybean plantings. Ukraine harvest running behind normal. Some est that 25-30 pct of corn crop is yet harvested.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.32. KWH is near 5.23. MWH is near 5.77. US exports are up 20 pcr vs last year and USDA est of up 9. Argentina and Russia are aggressive export sellers. Chicago futures below support lines. MLS futures back near support. ABARE est Australia wheat crop at 35.6 mmt vs 34.1 last year but below USDA 36. Some could see crop closer to 37.
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