Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SX is up 3 cents and near 10.56. SMZ is near 378.6. BOZ is near 33.46. CZ is down 1 cent and near 3.96. WZ is up 1 cent and near 6.04. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 5.44. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 27 cents; HRW down 25; HRS down 23; Corn is down 23 cents; Soybeans down 27; Soymeal down $8.00, and; Soyoil down 85 points. Crushing margins are unchanged at $1.27; Oil share is unchanged at 30%.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 27 cents; HRW up 37; HRS up 16; Corn is up 17 cents; Soybeans up 27; Soymeal up $29.00, and; Soyoil down 10 points. Crushing margins are up 37 cents at $1.27; Oil share is down 2% at 30%.
Soybeans and corn futures will trade financial and Covid news plus increasing demand for US exports. Wheat is still a weather market especially in Russia and US.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 103 yuan in soybeans, up 9 in Corn, down 5 in Soymeal, up 54 in Soyoil, and up 72 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 16 ringgit at 3,067 (basis January) at midsession on return from a holiday.
The 6 to 10 day time frame for the Midwest sees mostly dry weather for the region with temps below average for the first couple of days, warming to above average next week. The Southern Plains will be mostly dry over the next 6 to 10 days. Temps will go from below average over the next few days to above average for most of next week.
The Brazilian growing regions has hit and miss rainfall for mostly the northern growing regions over the next 5 days. The 6 to 10 day forecast continues with moderate rainfall in the northern areas with little rainfall elsewhere. The Argentine growing regions has mainly dry weather over the next 5 days. The 6 to 10 day forecast sees limited rainfall for most of the growing areas with only some activity for eastern sections.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 SRW Wheat; sold 7,000 Corn; sold 1,000 Soybeans; bought 1,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 31,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 186,000 Corn; net long 222,000 Soybeans; net long 88,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 81,000 Soyoil.
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