Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. USDA report day. SK is down 3. CK is up. WK is down. KWK is unch. MWK is down. Stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is mixed. Cocoa at new highs. Meats were lower. US inflation data rallied US Dollar and dropped US stocks yesterday. Overnight attacks on Kyiv destroyed major power plant. Russia continues to attack other Ukraine infrastructure.
SK is near 11.61. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower on talk China is offering soybeans from reserve. Palmoil was lower. Soyoil prices were higher. US export sales today. Trade estimates US sales at 200-600 mt vs 194 last week. Some feel recent lower soybean futures due to concern about future US soybean export demand, WASDE report today. Trade concern now USDA could increase US 2023/24 carryout due to lower exports. Trade also looks for USDA could drop Brazil soybean crop 3-4 mmt. Increase Brazil April soymeal sales and increase Argentina export supply still offers resistance to soymeal futures.
CK is near 4.35. West Midwest weather forecast is dry which should speed plantings. East, south and SE is wet which could slow plantings. US cash corn basis is firming on slow farmer selling. US export sales estimated at 750-1,300 mmt vs 947 last week. Weekly US ethanol prod remains up vs ly. Stocks are also higher than ly. WASDE report today. Trade looks for USDA to drop US 2023/24 corn carryout 70 mil bu. Trade also looks for USDA to drop Brazil corn crop 2 mmt.. Brazil corn futures rallied on talk of lower Argentina crop vs recent drop due to fact needed rains are forecast for the dry corn areas. Argentina dropped their corn crop from 57 mmt to 50.5 due to disease. USDA is 56 mmt.
WK is near 5.57. KWK is near 5.94. MWK is near 6.48. US south plains forecast reduced chances of rain. US export sales are estimated at -100 to 260 mt vs 16 last week. New crop 100-300 mt vs 262 last week. USDA report today. Trade looks for USDA to increase US 2023/24 wheat carryout 20 mil bu.. Some look for Russia wheat crop above 90 mmt. Still some ridging will needed to be watched. Russia continues to act like they are nationalizing Agriculture by taking over 650,000 private land.
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