Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 7 cents and near 14.25. SX is up 4 cents and near 12.73. SMK is near 402.4. BOK is near 54.47. CK is unchanged and near 5.90. CZ is up 1 cent and near 5.13. WK is down 3 cents and near 6.50. KWK is down 4 cents and near 6.03. MWK is down 1 cent and near 6.62. US stocks, US Dollar, Crude and gold are mixed.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 10 cents; HRW up 16; HRS up 6; Corn is up 16 cents; Soybeans up 20 cents; Soymeal up $2.00, and; Soyoil up 250 points. Crushing margins are up 11 cents at $0.65 (July); Oil share up 1% at 39%.
Chinese Ag futures (September) settled up 72 yuan in soybeans, up 30 in Corn, up 61 in Soymeal, up 140 in Soyoil, and up 224 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 104 ringgit at 3,694 (basis July) at midsession on improving exports.
US Midwest 6-10 day weather suggest cold temps and below normal rains through April 29. NOAA 90 day US Midwest forecast suggest above normal temps. West half dry. East half normal rains. Rains are expected to fall across US south plains today through Saturday. Long range is dry and warm
Soyoil prices firm on talk that US summer soybean crush could drop due to low soybean supplies. US Oct-March soybean use a record 3,369 mil bu. April 1 soybean stocks 5 year low near 1.298 mil bu. There is talk that steady rains has reduced Argentina harvested soybean acres and soybean quality
Matif new crop rapeseed futures trade higher on freeze damage concerns. Canada futures new highs. Argentina lowered their soybean crop to 43 mmt, increased corn crop to 46 mmt. Both below USDA.
Matif corn and wheat futures trending higher. Concern about recent freeze and dry W EU weather. Cold EU weather slowing corn planting and raising concern about wheat and rapeseed crop.
Threat of Russia closing Ukraine port raises concern about Ukraine exports.
Lower weekly US corn export sales and talk of some rain in C Brazil weighed on nearby corn futures. Cold and dry US Midwest weather could slow corn plantings. Some doubt farmer will increase acres. US north plains and Canada prairies weather forecast is expected to remain dry.
China soybean margins negative. Soymeal demand down due to ASF and increase wheat feeding. Increase China higher protein wheat feeding lowering meal use. China wheat feeding 40 mmt vs 19 ly.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 1,000 contracts of Corn; net bought 4,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 20,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 456,000 Corn; net long 157,000 Soybeans; long 60,000t Soymeal, and; net long 78,000 Soyoil.
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