Written Commentary
AM Grain Outlook
Grains are mixed. SU is down 2 cents and near 8.63. CU is up 1 cent and near 3.09. WU is down 2 cents and near 4.92. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold s higher.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 35 cents; HRW down 26; HRS down 17; Corn was down 7 cents; Soybeans down 25; Soymeal down $11.00, and; Soyoil unchanged. Crushing margins were up 2 at 101.00 cents; Oil share unchanged at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 25 yuan in soybeans, down 11 in Corn, down 16 in Soymeal, down 114 in Soyoil, and down 106 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 28 ringgit at 2,730 (basis October) at midsession tracking cheaper rival oils.
Wire story reports Chinese importers will crank up their purchases of soybeans from the United States in the fourth quarter to meet healthy livestock demand, making the most of the start of the U.S. harvest season after existing Brazilian supply mostly dried up.
The 6-10 day forecast for the US Midwest has light rainfall for most of Minnesota and far northern Iowa, along with southern sections of the Midwest. Temps are seen running average to below for most of the week then warming to average to above by the weekend and early next week The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest has average to a bit below average rainfall with temps to run average early and a bit below late.
Trade average guess for US 2020 corn crop is 15,170 mil bu with a range of 14,915-15.401. Trade average guess for US 2020 soybean crop is 4,258 mil bu with a range of 4,135-4,399. Trade average guess for US 2020 wheat crop is 1,833 mil bu with a range of 1,799-1,856.
Most look for USDA to increase weekly US corn and soybean crop ratings on Monday. There is talk that US final corn yield could reach 184 and soybean 54. There are also estimates that CZ fall low could be near 2.80 and SX could test 8.00. Some could see WU make a seasonal low near 4.70.This despite talk that combined, Canada and Australia 2020 exports could jump 12 mmt from last year.
Trade average guess for US 2020/21 corn carryout is 2,800 mil bu with a range of 2,622-3,061.Trade average guess for US 2020 soybean carryout is 525 mil bu with a range of 430-689. Trade average guess for US 2020 wheat carryout is 947 mil bu with a range of 899-1,011.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 15,000 Corn; sold 9,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 180,000 Corn; net long 31,000 Soybeans; net short 25,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 46,000 Soyoil.
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