Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is down 5 cents and near 16.84. SMK is near 470.2. BOK is near 74.67. CK is up 4 cents and near 7.73. CZ is near 7.33 and new highs. WK is up 14 cents and near 10.65. KWK is up 11 cents and near 11.18. Overnight high was 11.30. MWK is up 6 cents and near 11.33.
US Dollar is slightly lower. Crude is lower. Ukraine war may be near critical point. Ukraine spring crop planting could be curtailed due to lack of labor, fuel, seed and fertilizer.
US Midwest weather will be a mixture on cool/wet east and warm/dry west. Dry weather continues in US south plains. Central Brazil is dry.
May soybean futures rallied on Friday after USDA dropped Brazil 2022 crop and increased US soybean exports. Lower energy prices and SK inability to trade over 17.00 may be offering resistance to soybean and soyoil futures. Uncertain US summer weather could push SX over 15.00 and test 15.20. BOK supported by higher World palm oil, sunoil and rapeseed oil prices. SN-SX spread dropped from +191 to +149 and is now near +171. Key is China demand.
May corn could test 7.82. Still USDA may be too high with Ukraine and Argentina exports and too low with US exports. CZ is making new highs after USDA lower than expected US 2022 acres estimate. Central Brazil weather has turned dry with 60 pct of corn crop pollinating. CN-CZ spread dropped to +33 but is now near +44. Tight supply could test +50.
May Chicago wheat traded over 10.50. May KC wheat tested 11.30. Despite World buyers shifting buying from old crop to new, many feel USDA is too high in EU and Black Sea wheat exports. Forecast of dry and warm US south plains weather could push KWN over 11.50. KWN-CN is near +350. Dry US spring south plains weather could test +400.
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