Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. There is increase chance US Fed will lower rates in September. US Dollar has trended lower. Crude is unch and near $80. Gold is higher. Iran President and Foreign Minister were killed in helicopter crash. Vice President should be next President.
SN is near 12.31. Resistance is near 12.32. Heavy rains continue in S Brazil. Brazil soybean premiums are higher on increase China buying. Argentina crop is est at 46.5 mmt vs USDA 53. China has still not bought US new crop soybeans. Soyoil is higher on new talk US could still install tariffs on imported used cooking oil. US soybean plantings is near 45-47 pct. Midwest rains could slow plantings. Soybean bulls need either lower South America crops, increase demand for US soybeans or dry US Midwest summer to push futures higher.
CN is near 4.54. Some feel Mexico drought could increase their corn imports. US corn plantings are est at 73-76 pct. Wet US Midwest weather could slow plantings. 10-12 million acres will be planted after May 20. This could increase risk for summer dryness and heat. Increase Russia advance into east Ukraine could raise question about Ukraine corn exports. Russia claimed Ukraine fired US made missiles at a refinery which closed operations. Corn bulls need either lower South America crops, increase demand for US corn or dry US Midwest summer to push futures higher.
WN is near 6.66. WN has found resistance at 6.75. Wheat futures are trying to decide if WN needs to trade over 7.00 on Russia and EU winter wheat crop worries or if demand is soft enough to pull futures lower. It continues to rain in EU. US HRW forecast is drier and warmer. Some feel wheat futures need to add supply premium with some est World exporters stock to use ratio record low.
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