Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
May day. Fed day. Grains are mixed. SN is down 5 cents and near 11.57. SMN is near 345.2. BON is near 43.26. CN is down 1 cent and near 4.45. WN is up 3 cents and near 6.06. KWN is down 2 cents and near 6.33. MWN is down 2 cents and near 7.01. Stocks are lower before US Fed meeting, US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower on demand worries. Gold is lower. There is talk of new Israel/Hamas ceasefire talks.
SN is near 11.57. Heavy soyoil deliveries and soybean and soymeal deliveries suggest crushers are seeing large soyoil stocks and slowing demand for US soybean and soymeal exports. Soymeal gapped lower after Argentina strike ended. Lower meal and soyoil prices is hurting board crush. US March soybean crush is est at 205.9 mil bu vs 197.9 ly. End of March soyoil stocks are es tar 2,294 mil lbs vs 2,146 in Feb but below ly 2,388. Heavy storms hit parts of the Midwest and east S plains. USDA est US soybean plantings near 18 pct and 10 average. Midwest rains could slow plantings.
CN is near 4.45. Corn futures remain least volatile. There were zero deliveries suggest commercials need corn. US corn plantings are 27 pct and ahead of normal. Brazil safrina harvest is starting early and offering resistance to Brazil futures. Brazil and Argentina farmer remains slow seller despite end of Argentina strike. Weekly ethanol data could slower lower production and stocks. Restricted farm practices to meet sustainable Jet fuel demand could lower corn demand.
WN is near 6.06. KWN is near 6.33, MWN is near 7.01. US HRW south plains forecast is drier. Russia is forecast to see needed rains. Forecast is drier. EU is wet especially wet. Wheat could be about weather (US, EU, Black Sea), with May a critical month. US exports to date are up 7 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 6.5. Wheat deliveries were higher than expected and weighed on Chicago futures vs KC.
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