Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are mixed after Wednesday selloff. USD is higher. Crude is lower. OPEC considering another production increase. Gold is lower. Bitcoin sharply higher. US House is debating latest version of the tax and spending bill. US Midwest drier but temps are below normal. US rains in Deta and SE. North half of EU, China wheat areas and west Australia are dry. Forecast reduced Ukraine and Russia rains.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.56. BON is lower on uncertain 45Z future. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil were lower. Soymeal was higher. One group dropped US 2024/25 soybean crush 20 mil vu which raised carryout to 374. They reduced 2025/26 crush 75 mil bu vs USDA but added 200 mil bu to their export guess. This leaves a carryout at 500 mil bu vs USDA 295.. Matif rapeseed prices are higher on concern over dry German weather. Weekly US est for soybean export sales is 100-300 mt vs 282 last week and 90-400 mt new crop vs 490 last week.
CORN
CN is near 4.58. CN giving back some of Wednesday gains. Dalian corn ended higher. Most agree with USDA 2024/25 Supply and Demand but some feel US 2025/26 exports are 275 mil bu below USDA which increase carryout closer to 2,025. Talk US corn plantings could be delayed and drop final acres offered support. Argentina cheapest of exporters. Ukraine prices inverted with nearby $243 and new crop $210. US May 1 COF est near 98.5 pct, placements 96.8 and marketings 96.7. Weekly US corn export sales est at 700-1,600 mt vs 1,677 last week.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.42. KWN is near 5.33. MWN 5.98. Wheat futures found support due to lower USD, C US rains, increase wheat feeding and reports that Russia largest wheat producing region declared state of emergency. 3.00-5.00 inch rains are forecast for MO and S IL over next 7 days. Matif wheat futures are higher. US SRW export price is near $229, Russia $245, France $242 and Germany $271. Balkans 58 last week and new crop 300-700 mt vs 746 last week.
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