Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Trade is struggling with what to trade; improved SA weather? Drop is demand for US soybean exports? Higher demand for US corn or new inflow of buying due to inflation threat and Trumps desire to lower US interest rates. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are mixed. BOA said investors show the biggest willingness to take stock risk in 15 years. Crude is higher after Russia Caspian pipeline is attacked by drones. Upside is limited due to US and Russia Ukraine peace talks (without EU or Ukraine). Gold is higher on US policy uncertainty. US attacked al-Qaeda leader in Syria.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.48. There is new concern over US and China trade relations. US NOPA Jan soybean crush is est at 204.5 mil bu vs 185.7 last year. End of Jan soyoil stocks are est at 1,289 mil lbs vs 1,507 last year. And overall drier C/N Brazil weather should help soybean harvest. S Brazil and Argentina rains is helping slow crop decline. Brazil soybean ship line up is near 14 mmt vs last year 15 mmt and record line up of 18 mmt in 2022. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures were lower. Malaysian palmoil was lower on profit taking and concern about demand. Some could see US soybean carryout 50 mil bu below USDA due to higher exports and crush.
CORN
CK is near 5.09 and up from session low near 5.50. CK rallied over 5.00 on increased volume and open interest. Dalian corn futures were lower. Crude is higher after Russian pipeline was attacked by drones and despite US and Russia Ukraine peace talks. Better Brazil harvest and lower better Argentina rains could offer resistance to corn futures. Trade will watch futures US export sales and ethanol demand for price direction. Some could see US corn carryout 35-40 mil bu below USDA due to higher exports offsetting lower feed and residual.
WHEAT
WK is near 6.08. KWK is near 6.27. MWK is near 6.45. World 2025 weather uncertainty could be offering support. Ukraine and Russia weather is dry. Russia temps are cold this week. US plains are dry with colder temps this week. India is warm and dry. Most doubt US crop is a concern with snow cover except for SD. Matif wheat futures were lower.
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