Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. USDA report day. US stocks are slightly lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower on reduced US hurricane concern. Gold is lower. US Fed lowered rates 25 basis points.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 10.19. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Weekly US soyoil exports were higher than expected and supported soybean futures rally. China announced local government relief but no big stimulus. Trade est US 2024 soybean crop at 4,557 mil bu vs USDA Oct est of 4,582. Trade est 2024/25 carryout at 532 vs USDA 550. Weekly US soybean export sales were 2,040 mt. US export commit is up 17 pct vs ly and USDA est of 9 pct. USDA baseline estimated US 2025 soybean acres at 85.0 million vs 87.1 this year.
CORN
CZ is near 4.28. Some look for nearby corn futures in a range from 3.90-4.35. Managed funds were on sidelines after weekly sales were better than expected and weekly ethanol production was higher. Trade est US 2024 corn crop at 15,189 mil bu vs USDA Oct est of 15,203. Trade est 2024/25 carryout at 1,946 vs USDA 1,999. Brazil corn export pace is slow and suggest exports could be down 10 mmt vs USDA 46.5. South America weather remains favorable for crops. Weekly US corn sales were 2,770 mt. US export commit is up 48 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 1 pct. USDA announced 120 mt US corn to unknown. USDA baseline estimated US 2025 corn acres at 92.0 million vs 90.7 this year.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.70. KWZ is near 5.65. MWZ is near 5,98. Some look for nearby Chicago wheat futures in a range from 5.50-6.20. Good rains have fallen across US HRW plains. Trade est 2024/25 carryout at 813 vs USDA 812. Normal 2025 north hemisphere wheat crops could offer long term resistance. Matif wheat was lower. World wheat buyers and sellers watching for changes in US export policy. Weekly US wheat sales were up 18 pct ly and USDA est up 17 pct. USDA baseline estimated US 2025 wheat acres at 46.0 million vs 46.1 this year.
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