Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Lower trade across most of the Ag space this AM as cooler temperatures in week 2 of the outlook lean bearish. Heavy rains this weekend across Southern IL and IN along with central KY likely produced isolated flooding. Much above normal temperatures this week with a high pressure ridge over the nation’s midsection limiting rain to the N. Midwest. Slightly cooler temperatures in week 2 of the outlook as the high pressure ridge shifts west. Money managers were net sellers across the Ag. space for a 7th consecutive week selling nearly 76k contracts reducing their net long position to 160,824 contracts, their smallest position in 4 months. Energy prices are moderately higher as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. The US and Iran agreed to pause hostilities and allow vessels to travel thru the Straits of Hormuz after an exchange of military attacks this weekend. Spot WTI crude oil is up $.80 per barrel near $70 while holding within Friday’s range. Spot RBOB and HO are $.04 higher. Hot/dry conditions persist across western and central Europe. Rain in South American are limited to S. Brazil. Cooler than normal in Argentina and S. Brazil, above normal temperatures for C. and N. Brazil. The US $$$ is moderately lower while holding within Friday’s range. US stock indices are up .50% to 1.15%.
Corn:
July-26 and Dec-26 are both $.08 lower at $4.04 ¾ and $4.33 ½ respectively. July-26 carved out a new contract low however held above the $4.00 threshold. For tomorrow’s USDA stocks/acreage updates I see corn acres dipping to 94.75 mil. while my June 1st stocks est. is 5.425 bil. bu. The ave estimate in the Reuters survey shows acres at 95 mil. down from 95.3 in March with stocks at 5.408 bil. vs. 4.643 bil. YA.
Soybeans:
July-26 soybeans are $.07 lower at $11.19 ¼ while Nov-26 beans are off $.10 at $11.46 ¼.
July-26 meal is down $.60 at $306.40 while July-26 oil is up 10 points at 71.40. Crush margins jumped $.06 overnight to $3.39 ½ bu. Prices will continue to be sensitive to Chinese demand, or the lack thereof. US FOB offers at the Gulf are back to a slight premium over Brazilian offers for July/Aug-26, while slightly below Sept-26 forward.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.03 lower to $.03 higher. CGO July-26 is down $.03 at $5.75 ¼, KC July-26 is $.02 higher at $6.13, while MIAX July-26 is $.02 ½ higher at $5.77 ½. CGO July-26 traded to a fresh 2-week low however held support at $5.71. Inside trade for KC July-26 while MIAX made a new contract low before bouncing.
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