Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 141h day of partial shutdown. Grains are mixed to lower. US stocks are lower USD is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. US Midwest could see showers. C Brazil seeing rains. S Brazil and E Argentina wet. Fed Chairman Powell speaks today.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.04. SX-SF spread widened out to -18. Dalian soybean and soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Soyoil following Crude lower. Lack of USDA October report, US export sales data and CFTC report is bearish. China imposition tariffs on US operated vessels adds to cost Of US soybeans to China. Trade est US soybean harvest near 58 pct. Some could see final US soybean yield slightly below USDA 53.0 but trade could see US final soybean exports drop 435 mil bu below USDA 1,685 which could increase US carryout and drop SX to 9.50. Weekly US exports are est near 1,700 mt. China Oct-Sep soybean imports were 109.4 mmt vs USDA est of 106.5. Brazil soybean plantings are near 14 pct.
CORN
CZ is near 4.10. Dalian corn futures were lower and new contract lows. Increase US harvest is offering resistance to futures. Bears feel last 30 pct of harvest will stress storage capacity and weigh on futures and cash basis. Lack of USDA October report, US export sales data and CFTC report is bearish. Brazil corn futures lower on higher Real. Trade est US corn harvest near 44 pct with US yield slightly below USDA 186.7 but feed and residual could drop 200 mil bu and increase carryout closer to 2,464 mil bu and could drop CZ closer to 380. Weekly US corn exports are est near 1,300 mt. US exports remain strong but new US vessel tax and low river water levels could slow flow.
WHEAT
WZ is near 4.93. KWZ is near 4.78. MWZ is near 5.50. Lack of USDA October report, US export sales data and CFTC report is bearish. Some feel if there was a report, they would have raised Argentina , Russia and Canada crops. They may have kept Australia crop unch but lowered exports. Russia announced 2026 acres will be down 6 pct. Russia export pace is slower than USDA 45.0 mmt est which suggest active Oct Jan to reach USDA goal. Trade est US winter wheat plantings at 66 pct.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
