Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SF is down 11 cents and near 11.51. SMF is near 81.5. BOF is near 37.97. CH21 is down 4 cents and near 4.16. WH21 is down 8 cents and near 5.66. KWH21 is down 9 cents near 5.33. Talk of new US sanctions against China and lack of a new EU trade deal is weighing on commodities. US stocks are lower. Us Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold and Copper are lower.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 31 cents; HRW down 22; HRS down 20; Corn was down 13 cents; Soybeans down 28 cents; Soymeal down $11.00, and; Soyoil down 20 points. Crushing margins were up 5 cents at $1.02; Oil share was up 1% at 33%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 5 yuan in soybeans, down 9 in Corn, down 3 in Soymeal, up 80 in Soyoil, and up 72 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 42 ringgit at 3,439 (basis February) tracking soyoil losses.
Brazil’s bottom line is not bad with most central areas getting rain at one time or another and temperatures in a seasonable range. Rains could be lighter in North and South Brazil. A general lack of rain in southern Argentina Dec. 14 – 20 will make two weeks without much rain and sufficient warm weather will have topsoil moisture more significantly depleted by the end of the second week stressing crops more seriously than that of this first week.
One group est US 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,542. Dec 1 stocks 12,045 vs 11,327 ly. Dec-Feb use a record 8,266 vs 7,951 ly. Exports 465 vs 270 ly. Mar-May use 3,687 vs 2,942 ly. Exports 672 vs 355 ly. US China corn exports 815 vs 80 ly.
Same group est US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 65. Dec 1 stocks 2,822 vs 3,252 ly. Dec-Feb use a record 1,439 vs 1,002 ly. Exports 905 vs 505 ly. Mar-May use 744 vs 873 ly. Exports 240 vs 247 ly. US China corn exports 1,396 vs 583 ly.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 20,000 Corn; sold 3,000 Soybeans; net sold 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 6,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 272,000 Corn; net long 197,000 Soybeans; net long 67,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 117,000 Soyoil.
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