Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
Wheat futures are higher following Ukraine drone strikes on key Russia grain export port of Novorossiysk. Wheat made new lows on Thursday on talk that Romania would allow for Ukraine vessel loadout that would help clean up Ukraine vessel line up. Informa continues to estimate US wheat crop near 1,712 mil bu vs USDA 1,739. Weekly US export sales were better than expected but and are 29 pct below last year this date. Overall wheat volatility remains high given Black Sea off and on tension and weather. WU has dropped from a high near 7.77 to a low near 6.26 and is now near 6.45.
Corn futures are also higher following Ukraine drone strikes on key Russia grain export port of Novorossiysk. Corn futures tested seasonal support on Thursday on talk that Romania would allow for Ukraine vessel loadout that would help clean up Ukraine stalled vessel line up. Informa estimated US corn crop near 15,190 mil bu vs USDA 15,320. This is a 176 yield and too high to rally prices. Weekly US export sales were lower than expected and are 31 pct below last year this date. Overall corn volatility remains high given Black Sea off and on tension and dry US July weather but better August weather. July UN FAO food prices were up led by vegoil and wheat. Corn, dairy, sugar and meat were lower. CU has dropped from a high near 5.64 to a low near 4.80 and is now near 4.90.
Soybean futures are higher. Informa estimates US soybean crop near 4,216 mil bu vs USDA 4,300. Yield is 51 bpa. Weekly US new crop soybean export sales were better than expected due to increase China buying. US board crush margins are high due to increase soymeal exports and higher domestic soyoil use. Dalian palmoil prices are lower. July Malaysian production is estimated to be up 9 pct, stocks up 4 pct and exports up 8 pct. There is talk that Ukraine oilseed crops could be up 14 pct vs ly. SU has dropped from a high near 14.90 to double bottom low near 13.62 to high near 13.94. Resistance is near 14.06. BOU went from 69.12 to 62.19 and is now near 65.27. SMU went from 451 to 420 and is now near 429.
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