Written Commentary
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 1 cent, HRW up 2; HRS Wheat up 2, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans unchanged, Soymeal up $1.00, and Soyoil down 25 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 56 yuan, down 6 yuan in Corn, down 16 in Soymeal, down 16 in Soyoil, and down 6 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 12 ringgit at 2,454 (basis September) at midsession awaiting further updated trade data.
U.S. Weather Forecast
For the Midwest, rains will finish up in the east today and then things will be mainly dry across the region through Thursday; the next round of rains will arrive in the west early Friday and work into the rest of the region later Friday into early Saturday. The 6 to 10 day forecast still sees moderate rainfall to continue into early next week with good coverage.
The Southern Plains has hit and miss rains through Friday. The 6 to 10 day has the next round of rains looking to arrive by the weekend
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 15,000 Corn; sold 3,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 soymeal, and; sold 2,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 39,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 286,000 Corn; net long 29,000 Soybeans; net short 53,000 lots of Soymeal, and; short 4,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 6,200 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,800; Corn up 765; Soybeans down 13,400 contracts; Soymeal up 140 lots, and; Soyoil down 215.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 106; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS 488.
TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—
The U.S. trade deal with China is not only fully intact, but Beijing has actually stepped forward in a number of areas in a constructive way, a top White House adviser said; they’ve actually picked up their game,” National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said; it’s not just commodity buying, although that is picking up too,” but also extends to the issue of intellectual property theft, which has long been one of the sore spots for the relationship.
Manitoba crop report – Reuters News
Strong winds have delayed herbicide application on all crops; crop staging is advancing and may prove challenging to spray within labelled application windows; scattered thunderstorms brought significant amounts of rain over the weekend to parts of the Eastern, Central, and Interlake regions; Southwest and Northwest regions and northern Interlake continue to be dry, and could use rain
CHINA SELLS 3,988,237 TONNES OF CORN, OR 100% OF TOTAL OFFER, AT AUCTION OF STATE RESERVES -TRADE CENTRE
—AVERAGE SELLING PRICE OF CORN IS 1,871 YUAN/TONNE
China’s soybean buyers are asking exporters to sign a letter guaranteeing their cargoes are not contaminated with the novel coronavirus, U.S., Brazilian and Canadian soy industry officials said; China is trying to prevent any risk of new COVID-19 infections from imported goods as it takes aggressive measures to contain a recent spike in coronavirus infections linked to a sprawling wholesale food market in Beijing; most international authorities say there is no evidence that the coronavirus can be transmitted from food to people; two grain export traders told Reuters that their companies have not responded to the request and are looking to federal agriculture officials or broader industry groups for a unified response
China’s appetite for salmon and other seafood has crashed this month, after a resurgence in coronavirus infections in Beijing was traced to chopping boards for imported salmon in a wholesale food market in the capital; exporters all the way to Europe are feeling the pinch as the virus scare prompts supermarkets and e-commerce players such as Taobao, JD.com and Meituan in China, the world’s top consumer of frozen and fresh seafood, to slash salmon sales.
Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 12.6 million tons in June, slightly lower than the 13 million tons predicted last week, according to a statement from grains exporter association Anec; based on shipping line-ups, Anec forecast Brazil will export 3 million tons between June 21 and June 27.
Euronext wheat futures fell on Tuesday to a new three-month low as a sharp rise in the euro and improving prospects for northern hemisphere cereal harvests pushed prices through a key support level; front-month September milling wheat ended down 1.50 euros, or 0.8%, at 177.00 euros ($200.42) a ton; in closing trade, the contract touched its lowest since March 18 at 176.50 euros; it had dropped below a previous three-month low of 178.25 euros touched twice in the past week and which was acting as a chart support level.
South African maize farmers are expected to harvest 38% more maize in the 2019/2020 season compared with the previous season after favorable weather conditions boosted yields, a Reuters survey showed; South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) is expected to forecast this year’s maize production at 15.574 million tons, up from 11.275 million harvested in the 2018/2019 season, which was impacted by dry weather conditions; the estimate is slightly lower than the CEC’s May forecast of 15.589 million tons.
India has authorized imports of 500,000 tons of corn this year at a concessional 15% import tax, the government said, as New Delhi tries to augment supplies of the animal feed for the poultry industry; India normally imposes a 60% import tax on the grain; the corn imports under the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) were allowed for end-consumers in the poultry and starch supply sectors; a major exporter of corn to southeast Asia until a few years ago, India has turned importer as output has fallen and demand has grown from domestic poultry producers and corn starch manufacturers.
Malaysian palm oil producers step up perks to retain foreign workers amid pandemic; the coronavirus pandemic is exacerbating a labor shortage in the Malaysian palm oil industry, which is heavily reliant on foreign workers; thousands have already abandoned plantations in the world’s second largest producer, heading home as borders closed, adding pressure in an industry where around 2-3% of foreign workers “abscond” each year; the labor crunch threatens to reduce Malaysia’s output and exports at a time of increased competition as global demand for palm oil is forecast to slip by around 3% in the current crop year.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jun. 1-20 rose 49.9 percent to 1,217,356 tons from 812,312 tons shipped during May. 1-20, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said.
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