June 22 Global Ag News Headlines

Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 2 cents, HRW down 1; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 1, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 10 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 22 cents; HRW down 20; HRS up 8; Corn was up 2 cents; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal down $5.00, and; Soyoil up 90 points. Crushing margins were down 1 cent at 88 cents; Oil share up 1% at 33%.

Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 66 yuan, down 9 yuan in Corn, up 20 in Soymeal, up 40 in Soyoil, and up 66 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were down at 2,451 (basis September) at midsession on drop projections of consumption by private analyst.

U.S. Weather Forecast

For the Midwest, rains will continue to fall across much of the region through early Tuesday

the 6-10 day forecast has both models indicating rains to get going again across the region by the end of next week

the 11-16 day outlook sees ridging to dominate most of the pattern across the central US, producing above average temps and below average precip in all of the Midwest

Temps this week will run below average and then warm to a bit above average as we head through the weekend and into early next week.

For the South Plains 

Rains will fall through Monday with things looking mainly dry across the region through the rest of this period.

the 6-10 day forecast sees another round of rains to fall in most of KS, OK and the TX panhandle; things then look to be mainly dry for the early part of next week.

Temps will run a bit below average for the next 10 days

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 5,000 Corn; bought 4,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 43,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 259,000 Corn; net long 33,000 Soybeans; net short 50,000 lots of Soymeal, and; short 1,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 80 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,200; Corn up 19,900; Soybeans down 525 contracts; Soymeal up 5,900 lots, and; Soyoil up 415.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 106; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS 488. 

TODAY—EXPORT INSPECTIONS—CROP PROGRESS—

Grains traders are watching the movement of both Brazilian and US currencies to get a sense of if Chinese buying of US grains exports will soon increase; China appears to be favoring US exports in recent weeks because of weakening of the US dollar, with the US dollar index on the Intercontinental Exchange down 2.1% over the past month and the Brazilian real strengthening 7.4% in the same timeframe; for over a month, we’ve been cheaper than Brazil

Speculators began covering short positions in Chicago-traded corn last week amid dry weather in the U.S. Corn Belt, though they still hold by far the most bearish-ever views toward the yellow grain for the time of year; investors also hold record short positions for mid-June in soybean meal, Kansas City wheat and Minneapolis wheat, as both U.S. and global grain and feed supplies remain ample; hedge funds and other money managers finally started to chip away at their massive net short in CBOT corn through June 16, cutting it to 270,751 futures and options contracts from 297,312 a week earlier.

China’s customs authority said on Sunday it had suspended imports of poultry products from a plant owned by U.S.-based meat processor Tyson Inc that has been hit by the novel coronavirus; the General Administration of Customs said on its website it had decided on the suspension after the company confirmed it had bat the plant, which carries the registration number of P5842; the plant is located in Springdale, Arizona, according to a customs file of registered exporters.

Wire story reports trust in America’s farmers and ranchers remains high amid the devastating blow delivered by the COVID-19 pandemic; a new American Farm Bureau Federation poll shows 84% of Americans trust the nation’s farmers and the same overwhelming majority support financial assistance from the government for farmers struggling to keep from going under because of the pandemic; the results of the survey indicate a growing understanding of how important a stable food supply is to the health and well-being of our nation; shortages at grocery stores and other food supply chain shockwaves caused by the pandemic gave many people a new understanding of the crucial role of America’s farmers and ranchers and the importance of their survival through the COVID-19 economic storm; it is so heartening to know that through it all, the American people’s trust in farmers is unwavering.’

Alberta crop report

More rain fell over the last weekend, tornadoes, hail and severe storms hit some areas across the southern half of the province, followed by another system impacting both south and north; over this period, a large area mainly in the Central, North West and Peace Regions along with the western parts of the North East Region received well over 30 mm of precipitation, with many areas getting up to 80 mm

Whether China fulfills its commitment to buy $36.5 billion of agricultural goods will likely come down to the wire, with experts turning their focus to the 4th quarter; when U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer testified before Congress earlier this week, he said China had purchased about $10 billion worth of agricultural goods, far shy of its $36.5 billion commitment under the phase one trade agreement; but there’s an important distinction to keep in mind; the numbers in the agreement are landed prices in China; soybean growers know the difference between outstanding sales and cumulative inspections; those actually have to ship, and we all know those can be rolled or canceled if things would turn south with China.

Brazilian farmers will produce 75.1M metric tons of corn in the winter growing season, up from 74.4M tons a year ago, according to the estimate by agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado; Safras had previously forecast production of 69.6M tons for this year’s winter crop; the group also raised its estimate of the area planted, with an increase of 9.3% over the same period last year; with the revision to the winter crop estimate, Safras forecasts a total corn crop of 108.4M tons for the 2019-2020 growing season.

Argentina’s president has agreed to a plan to avoid the expropriation of bankrupt agricultural exporter Vicentin following stringent objection from the country’s grains sector, the governor of Santa Fe province said; President Alberto Fernandez backs a plan that would allow Vicentin’s bankruptcy proceedings to continue without asking Congress for permission to expropriate the company, which was Argentina’s top soymeal exporter last year.

Argentina’s government will extend a Friday deadline for a $65 billion debt restructuring invitation after late-stage talks with creditors hit a snag this week over what the final proposal would look like

Russia’s June exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are expected at 600,000 tons, down from 2.21 million tons estimated in May, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said.

Russian wheat export prices fell last week under pressure from the approaching new crop and lower global benchmarks; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loaded from Black Sea ports was at $202 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, down $3 from the previous week, SovEcon said; another consultancy, IKAR, pegged wheat for supply in August at $199 a tonne, down $7 from the previous week

SovEcon said it had raised its forecast for Russia’s 2020 sunflower seed crop after rainfall in June boosted moisture reserves in the soil; Russia is now expected to harvest 14.6 million tons of sunseeds, the second largest crop on record; it previously expected a crop of 13.9 million tons of sunseeds; Russia harvested a record crop of 15.4 million tons a year ago

Global consumption of palm oil will fall this season for the first time on record as a coronavirus-led recession slashes demand for edible oils and fats, leading industry analyst Thomas Mielke said; Mielke said palm oil usage in the 2019-2020 season starting in October could slip by 2.2 million tons, or around 3%, from the last season; this is unprecedented and compares with a global consumption boost by 8 million tons last season.

Petroleum is the key to understanding the palm oil market today as it determines the crude palm oil (CPO) price range via the price band and is also a sign of the state of the world economy, plantation expert Dr James Fry of LMC International Ltd said; he said it is difficult for the palm oil market to be upbeat as the world is in a deep recession.

• MALAYSIAN PALM OIL BOARD SAYS COUNTRY’S 2020 TOTAL PALM OIL EXPORT (NOT CRUDE) ESTIMATED AT 16.5 MLN TONNES, DOWN 10.6% FROM PREVIOUS YEAR
• MALAYSIAN PALM OIL BOARD SAYS COUNTRY’S 2020 CRUDE PALM OIL PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT 19 MLN TONNES, DOWN 4.3% FROM PREVIOUS YEAR
• MALAYSIAN PALM OIL BOARD SAYS COUNTRY’S 2020 PALM OIL CLOSING STOCKS ESTIMATED AT 2.30 MLN TONNES, UP 14.4% FROM PREVIOUS YEAR

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for June 1 – 20 rose 57.0 percent to 1,212,505 tonnes from 772,145 tonnes shipped during May 1 – 20, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for June 1 – 20 rose 55.3 percent to 1,213,696 tonnes from 781,324 tonnes shipped during May 1 – 20, according to independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia said