July 9 Globlal Ag News Headlines
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 1 cent, HRW up 2; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is up 5 cents; Soybeans up 6, Soymeal up $2.50, and Soyoil down 5 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 66 yuan, up 19 in Corn, up 3 in Soymeal, up 32 in Soyoil, and up 40 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 9 ringgit at 2,416 (basis September) at midsession awaiting June trade data.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Last evening’s GFS model run was notably drier in much of the Corn Belt July 18 – 23; a greater amount of drying is still expected in the second week of the outlook in the region compared to the first week; the position of the ridge of high pressure in the U.S. will likely favor some complexes of thunderstorms to move across the region, and portions of the southwestern Corn Belt may end up driest.
The 11 to 16 day forecast still has both models indicating ridging bringing limited rains and above average temps to the Plains and the Midwest.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 15,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 10,000 Corn; sold 4,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 lots of soymeal, and; sold 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 24,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 173,000 Corn; net long 76,000 Soybeans; net short 47,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 5,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 7,500 contracts; HRW Wheat up 5,300; Corn down 13,200; Soybeans down 5,900 contracts; Soymeal down 1,400 lots, and; Soyoil down 3,100.
Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal; 61 Soyoil; ZERO Rice; ZERO Corn; 26 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; ZERO Soybeans; 84 SRW Wheat, and; ZERO HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations (HRW Wheat down 2)—Registrations total 162 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,141 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 11; HRW Wheat 95, and; HRS 1,379.
TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES—
Tender Activity—Jordan seeks 120,000t optional-origin wheat—Philippines seek 110,000t optional-origin feed wheat—Thailand passed on 193,300t optional-origin feed wheat—Egypt cancelled tender for 30,000t optional-origin soyoil, 10,000t sunoil—
Wheat Higher on Shrinking World Production Projections; this continues a wheat uptick in reaction to reports of lower harvests than expected from competitors such as France and Russia; early harvest results in Southern Russia have been worse than many expected with analysts now bringing down their crop forecasts after earlier increasing them; Russian wheat won an Egyptian tender for 230,000 metric tons of wheat, but tighter Russian supplies will likely mean higher prices globally.
U.S. ethanol production for the week ended July 3rd averaged 914,000 barrels per day (up 1.6% versus a week ago, down 12.7% versus a year ago); stocks totaled 20.6 mil barrels (up 2.3% versus a week ago, down 10.4% versus last year); corn use for the week was 91.6 mil bu (90.2 mil last week) and versus the 98.4 mil bu needed to meet USDA projections.
—After declining for the past 10 weeks, US ethanol inventories rose in the past week; last week, ethanol inventories fell to their lowest level since January 2017; meanwhile, daily ethanol production is still growing in the US after the coronavirus crisis forced many plants to shutter in the spring, with daily production increasing, it’s their highest level since late March
CHINA SELLS 3,970,072 TONNES OF CORN, OR 100% OF TOTAL OFFER, AT AUCTION OF STATE RESERVES -TRADE CENTRE
—AVERAGE SELLING PRICE OF CORN IS 1,899 YUAN/TONNE
The USDA again did not announce any new large sales of US soybean exports to China on Wednesday–which contributed to pressure on US soybean futures; beans caught some liquidation of bean/corn spreads with a lack of hard news out, and little new Chinese interest; the Chinese were said to have bought a cargo of beans out of Argentina for August, and a new crop cargo out of Brazil…but little from the U.S.
The Buenos Aires grains exchange said it could further cut its forecast for Argentina’s 2020/21 wheat planting area, currently at 6.5 million hectares, due the dry weather that has affected producing regions in recent weeks; any further cut would be the third made by the key grains exchange, which at the beginning of the campaign had forecast a record wheat planting area of 6.8 million hectares; as of Tuesday, farmers had planted 86.8% of the planned area for wheat
—Regarding 2019/20 corn, the Buenos Aires exchange said that dry conditions have favored the harvesting of the cereal, whose threshing is 86.4% complete and its production is estimated at 50 million tons
Ukraine increased its rapeseed exports by 18% to an all-time high 2.89 million tons in the 2019/20 season thanks to a high harvest, analyst APK-Inform said; the previous record export was in the 2008/09 season when Ukraine exported 2.64 million tons
—The consultancy said this month Ukraine was likely to cut its rapeseed harvest to 3.07 million tons in 2020 from 3.34 million in 2019 and the 2020/21 season’s exports might fall to 2.7 million tons
Euronext wheat rose for the second day in a row on Wednesday to a one-month high as latest harvest estimates fueled uncertainty about supply prospects in Europe and the Black Sea region; front-month September wheat settled 2.25 euros, or 1.2%, higher at 187.00 euros a ton, after rising to its highest since June 5 at 187.25 euros.
Saudi Arabia said it had completed the first batch of its flour milling sector privatization, according to a statement by the state grain buyer and privatization center; the long-awaited flour mills sale was one of the first privatizations the kingdom planned as part of a wide-reaching overhaul of its economy.
The world’s top palm oil maker Indonesia in May exported 2.43 million tons of the vegetable oil, including refined products such as oleochemicals, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said; it fell from 2.79 million tons a year earlier and from 2.65 million tons in April.
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