Written Commentary
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 4 cents, HRW up 2; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is up 4 cents; Soybeans up 5, Soymeal up $2.50, and Soyoil up 5 points.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 33 cents; HRW down 36; HRS down 15; Corn was up 12 cents; Soybeans up 31; Soymeal up $4.00, and; Soyoil up 60 points. Crushing margins were down 4 cents at 85, Oil share unchanged at 32%.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 35 yuan, up 1 yuan in Corn, up 51 in Soymeal, unchanged in Soyoil, and down 56 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up at 2,327 ringgit (basis September) at midsession supported by firmer soyoil and crude oil prices.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Showers and thunderstorms will to occur for another day and a half in scattered form across the Midwest with light to moderate rainfall
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest is shower and thunderstorm activity mainly confined to Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Ohio River Valley
One of the largest rainfall changes in week 2 was across the Southeast and in a large portion of the Corn Belt Jul. 10 – 12; the midday GFS model in yesterday’s run overdid rainfall; last night’s run removed almost all the rain.
Ridge building in the center of the U.S. will lead to an increasing need for rain in the Corn Belt in the first ten days of July; the ridge will then likely shift farther to the west.
The 11 to 16 day outlook for the Midwest sees ridging occurring bringing below average precip to a good portion of the region; temps will be above average but widespread severe heat is just seen in pockets
The 1 to 5 day forecast for the Southern Plains looks to be mainly dry across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas
The only change in week 1 of last evening’s GFS model run was the increase of rain in the western half of the Hard Red Winter Wheat Region, or from the Texas Panhandle into southwestern Nebraska, Sunday into next Tuesday
The 6 to 10 forecast for the Southern Plains sees most of Kansas to be dry; showers and thunderstorms look to produce light to moderate rainfall eastern Oklahoma and northern Texas
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 40,000 Corn; bought 19,000 Soybeans; net bought 6,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 47,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 243,000 Corn; net long 53,000 Soybeans; net short 46,000 lots of Soymeal, and; short 4,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,900 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,100; Corn up 10,500; Soybeans up 10,600 contracts; Soymeal down 1,900 lots, and; Soyoil down 2,000.
Deliveries were 243 Soymeal; 287 Soyoil; ZERO Rice; ZERO Corn; 16 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; ZERO Soybeans; 61 SRW Wheat, and; 516 HRS Wheat.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 162 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,645 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 6; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS 488.
TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—MONTHLY OILSEED/GRAIN CRUSHINGS—
Tender Activity—Jordan bought 60,000t optional-origin wheat—Algeria bought 300,000t optional-origin wheat—Thailand seeks 236,800t optional-origin feed wheat—S. Korea bought 60,000t optional-origin feed wheat—
USDA May soybean crush seen at 180.7 million bushels – Reuters News
—The May U.S. soybean crush is expected to dip to 5.421 million short tons, or 180.7 million bushels,
Estimates ranged from 180.0 million bushels to 182.0 million bushels
The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Wednesday.
If realized, it would be the largest May crush on record, topping the prior record of 172.4 million bushels set in May 2018; but it would be down from an April crush of 183.4 million bushels and the smallest monthly crush since February.
U.S. soyoil stocks at the end of May were projected to drop to 2.372 billion lbs from 2.602 billion lbs at the end of April, which was the largest end-of-month supply in two years
Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 2.250 billion to 2.450 billion lbs
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), whose members account for 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, reported a May crush of 169.584 million bushels and end-of-month oil stocks of 1.880 billion lbs.
Wire story reports market participants have been perplexed that U.S. farmers planned to plant the second-largest corn area in more than eight decades, with futures at 14-year lows and stockpiles expanding to eye-popping volumes; most historical data supports the idea that American farmers love to plant corn even in trying times; but 2020 offered up enough roadblocks for producers to drastically change plans over the last few months, and the latest acreage number published on Tuesday makes the new-crop balance sheet a little more interesting.
U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley said on Tuesday he supported a plan by one of his Senate colleagues to block the nomination of an Environmental Protection Agency official until the agency makes clear how it would handle requests from oil refiners for retroactive exemptions from their biofuel blending mandates.
U.S. biodiesel production fell to 143 million gallons in April from 151 million gallons a month earlier, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said; soybean oil remained the largest biodiesel feedstock, with 672 million lbs used in April, or about 63 percent of the total; in March, soyoil used in biodiesel production was 656 million lbs.
Manitoba crop report – Reuters News
Downpours accompanied by strong winds affected a large swath of the Southwest and Northwest region; overland flooding of crops, pastures is occurring in some districts, the full impact is yet to be determined.
Brazil is expected to export 11.9 million tons of soybeans in June, a 37% rise from the same month last year, as Chinese demand remains strong and ports operate normally amid the COVID-19 pandemic, industry group Anec said
—Exports of corn from Brazil are seen at 774,850 tons in the month based on shipping data
—Anec also raised its annual export projection for 2020 to 78 million tons of soybeans, up from a prediction of 73 million tons in April.
—Brazil’s July soy exports are predicted to be 7.25 million tons while corn sales abroad are estimated at 3.9 million tons, with Brazil’s season for exporting its second corn crop beginning in earnest
Ukraine’s wheat export rose to 20.5 million tons in the 2019/20 season, which runs to June 30, from 15.6 million tons in the previous season, the economy ministry said; Ukraine harvested 28.3 million tons of wheat in 2019 but expects that the harvest could decrease to 24.5 million tons this year due to poor weather.
Indonesia plans to produce 52.12 million tons of crude palm oil in 2021, an agriculture ministry official told parliament.
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the June 1-25 period are estimated up 36% on month at 1,416,751 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said.
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