Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
March Crude Oil was firm in the early going Friday but had yet to take out Monday’s high. The market may have found support on concerns a potential disruption to Iran’s oil output as protests there heat up. The market is also trying to assess the potential for the Venezuelan oil sector. US oil executives are meeting at the White House today (Friday) to discuss potential investment plans in Venezuela. OPEC’s crude production held steady in December at a little over 29 million barrels per day, as the drop in Venezuelan output to its lowest level in two years was offset by increases in Iraq and some other members, according to a Bloomberg survey.
PRODUCTS
February RBOB was higher early Friday and managed to extend Thursday’s rally by a touch. ULSD was also higher but not as strong as gasoline, as it is being held back by the mild winter and relatively low heating demand,
NATURAL GAS
March Natural Gas collapsed overnight and fell to its lowest level since October 2020. The nearby contract fell to its lowest level since this past October. The mild winter is taking a toll on US heating demand, with the unseasonably warm weather this week suggesting US supplies will remain burdensome. The weather forecast is switching from mild to normal to cooler than normal, which could help tighten supplies over the next two weeks.
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