Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. stock index futures are lower, dragged down by worries about the impact of tighter restrictions on the global economy due to virus concerns.
The 9:00 central time November leading indicators report is expected to show a 0.8% increase.
The dominant short-term influence is the variant news.
However, the long-term fundamentals remain bullish on balance for stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
Flight to quality buying failed to emerge to support the U.S. dollar while a flow of funds to safe-haven vehicles supported the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.
The yen is higher despite the Bank of Japan’s commitment to retain easy monetary policies to achieve its 2.0% price stability target.
The British pound is lower on news that the Confederation of British Industry’s order book balance index declined to +24 in December 2021, which is down 2 points from the previous month’s record high of +26, according to the latest monthly CBI Industrial Trends Survey.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The 30-year Treasury bond futures broke out above a symmetrical triangle pattern on Friday but are giving back some of those gains today.
Futures are higher at the front end of the curve on prospects of slower global economic growth.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said a faster wind-down of the central bank’s bond-buying program puts the Fed in a position to begin lifting interest rates as early as in March.
If the U.S. economy weakens, it may be difficult for the Fed to justify an accelerated taper of its asset-purchase program, especially now that other central banks are adding more accommodation or are delaying the partial removal of easy-monetary policies.
The fundamentals for the interest rate futures market are mostly aligned on the bullish side.
Higher prices are likely for futures across the board.
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