GOLD / SILVER
While Chinese gold prices traded higher overnight and Indian prices carved out a very minuscule gain, the US gold market has rolled over and failed to hold at yesterday’s low early on. While the dollar is lower, the charts in the dollar do not give off the impression that the March to early September downtrend is resuming and therefore gold is without that fresh bullish catalyst. However, the gold market should draft a minimal amount of support from the 12th straight day of gold ETF inflows with total holdings now pegged at a very significant 109 million ounces worldwide. The silver market continues to see disappointing demand evidence from reports of slack Indian retail demand and from an extending pattern of daily outflows from silver ETF’s (yesterday’s decline was the 6th straight decline) but year to date gains in silver holdings remain 45% above year ago levels.
PLATINUM / PALLADIUM
While this week’s upward bias is anemic, with a series of minor higher lows the market has failed to take out consolidation high resistance of $2352.50 on several occasions. With open interest showing very little change and volume this week low on the rally it-would-appear that the bull case is not attracting many fresh traders. The upside action in the platinum market this week is more impressive than the anemic gains forged in palladium, but the market has not seen open interest and trading volume confirm the bull track.
Despite the definitive damage on the charts yesterday, minimal declines in LME and Shanghai copper warehouse stocks was disappointing to the bulls and sentiment toward the US recovery was undermined yesterday by US claims data. However, copper is probably seeing some support from news that Chinese loans jumped sharply in August as that indicates economic activity and should facilitate ongoing strong demand.
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