Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 12 cents and near 16.58. SX is near 15.12. SMN is near 413.4. BON is near 84.06. CN is up 15 cents and near 7.96. CZ is near 7.60. WN is up 51 cents and near 12.29. KWN is up 47 cents and near 13.29. MWN is up 43 cents and near 13.68.
US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar is lower. Gold is lower. Silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. US inflation, Ukraine war and slowing economies especially US, EU and China adds to trade volatility and uncertainty.
Wheat futures are sharply higher. India announced a ban on wheat exports. The ban will allow sales on the books to be cancelled and sellers can declare force majeure. Wheat futures are also supported by dry US HRW, EU and Black Sea weather and wet US HRS and east Canada weather. Informa est US 2022 HRW crop at 590 mil bu vs 749 ly, SRW 354 vs 361 ly and HRS 484? Vs 297 ly. Informa estimated US Wheat acres 47.3 vs 46.7 ly. SW 11.2 vs 11.4 ly
Corn futures are higher and following wheat. Some feel US corn plantings could be near 42 pct. Midwest forecast is wet this week which could delay corn plantings. USDA 177 corn yield could be too high. C IL corn basis is +50. Some feel 8.00 corn is not rationing demand and could be undervalued. Informa estimated US 2022 corn acres near 91.5 vs USDA March est of 89.5 and 93.4 last year.
SN is higher. Total US May-July soybean use will be record. NOPA April soybean crush is expected to be a record 174.4 mil bu. Wet NW Midwest weather could lower final US soybean acres. US soybean plantings could be near 31-32. Informa estimated US soybean acres 89.0 vs USDA March 90.9 and 87.2 last year. Double crop soybean acres are est at 4.5 vs 3.7 ly. Prevent plant 2.5 vs 1.9 last year and 9.4 in 2020 and 17.6 in 2019.
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