Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. USD is higher. Crude is little lower. Gold is lower. Choppy trade waiting for Fed Chairman comments. World weather US Midwest forecast suggest August could be drier than normal for E IA,IL,IN,OH and KY. September could be drier for ND,SD,IA,MN and N IL. Temps cooler than normal.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.57. BOZ is near 53.82. Soybean rallied on higher soyoil due to talk refiners may not get waivers that are hoping for. Pro Farmer tour est IA pod count at 1,384 vs 1,312 ly and MN 1,247 vs 1,036 ly. Scouts did report SDS in IA beans. Dalian soybean, soymeal and palmoil were lower. US soybean export commit is near 51.0 mmt vs USDA goal of 51.0. New crop commit is near 5.8 mmt with USDA goal near 46.4. USDA also est Brazil 25/26 exports near 112. 0 mmt and China imports at 112.0 Brazil new crop export basis lower on increase farmer selling.
CORN
CZ is near 4.11. US corn export commit is near 70.5 mmt vs 55.9 ly and USDA est of 71.6. New crop commit is near 16.6 mmt. US lakes competitive to W EU. US gulf to EU and N Africa and PNW to Asia. USDA new crop goal is 73.0. Pro Farmer crop tour est IA corn yield near 198.7 vs 192.7 ly and MN at eye popping 202.8 and well above 164.9 ly. Scouts did report rust in IA corn. Dalian corn futures continue lower and new contract low. IGC raised their est of US corn crop 24.6 mmt to 423.5. This increased World corn crop to 1,299 mmt. They also increased demand 13 mmt.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.27. KWZ is near 5.24. MWZ is near 5.91. Argentina and Australia futures continue to bounce off recent lows. Matif ended higher due to lower euro after new US/EU trade deal. US wheat export commit is near 11.5 mmt vs 8.4 ly and up 22 pct vs ly and USDA goal up 6. IGC increased World wheat crop 3 mmt to 811. IGC increased Russia 2 mmt and EU .8. NOAA 3 month US Midwest and S plains forecast is dry and warm. Some feel NOAA is too focused on a brief return on La Nina which may be wrong and suggest actual forecast closer to normal rains and cooler temps.
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