Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SF is up 14 cents and near 11.67. SMF is near 393.6 BOF is near 37.52. CZ is up 3 cents and near 4.19. CH21 is near 4.26. WZ is up 1 cent and near 5.99. WH21 is near 6.05. KWZ is down 2 cents and near 5.55. KWH21 is near 5.64. US stock market is lower. Crude is mixed. US Dollar is lower. Gold is lower. Trade watching any new news on virus, economic outlook especially last half of 2021 and global weather.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 15 yuan in soybeans, up 2 in Corn, down 22 in Soymeal, up 58 in Soyoil, and up 78 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 5 ringgit at 3,378 (basis February) closing with ideas rising prices will now limit exports.
US October NOPA soybean crush was record and higher than expected. Trade looking for new China sales.
La Nina weather could reduce rains in Black Sea, South America and US south plains. Talk of delays in Brazil soybean plantings and increase US crush and exports could force higher prices. Argentina soybean processors workers are threatening a work strike.
Higher US soybean exports could drop US carryout below 100 mil bu and force futures higher. EU Ukraine corn imports down 60 pct yoy. Russia domestic corn price all-time highs. Lower Ukraine exports.Higher US corn exports could drop US carryout below 1,500 mil bu and force futures higher.
US domestic and export corn basis levels dropped last week on farmer selling. Basis is now beginning to firm.
USDA estimated US corn harvest at 95 pct. Late crops are in MI, OH and WI.
USDA estimated US soybean harvest at 96 pct. Late crops are in M0, OH and TN.
USDA estimated US winter wheat crop 46 pct good/ex. Co 25. TX 30. KS 32. NE 39. OH 73. WA 68.
Weekly US corn exports were 32 mil bu. Total exports 330 vs 196 ly. USDA goal 2,560. Some near 2,900.
Weekly US soybean exports were 82 mil bu. Total exports 815 vs 457 ly. USDA goal 2,200. Some near 2,350.
Weekly US wheat exports were 12 mil bu. Total exports 442 vs 438 ly. USDA goal 975.
CFTC report showed Managed funds less long corn, soybeans and soymeal than expected. Commercials increased their net corn and soybean short on increase US farmer selling.
On Monday, Managed funds were buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 17,000 Corn; bought 7,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 lots of Soyoil. CFTC estimated Managed funds to be net long 32,000 wheat, 47,000 KC wheat, 280,000 corn, 221,000 soybeans, 84,000 soymeal and 97,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 23,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 247,000 Corn; net long 239,000 Soybeans; net long 79,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 107,000 Soyoil.
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