Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
May Crude Oil was higher early Thursday and was positioned right in the middle of Wednesday‘s big range down. The initial euphoria of the cease fire announcement has faded and the difficulty in getting Iran to agree to re-open the Strait has come into focus, with the US and Iran seemingly far apart on their lists of demands. It does beg the question at what point Iran will push its luck? Iran proved resilient because it blocked the Strait, but this could also unite opposition to force the Strait open, which could be a long and costly process. Iran is talking about a “toll system” for ships traversing the Strait, which seems to be a non-starter for other Persian Gulf nations as well as the US.
PRODUCTS
Product prices were higher early Thursday but holding near the middle of Wednesday’s big range down.
NATURAL GAS
May Natural Gas was near unchanged early Thursday after coming close to taking out the January low at 2.689 on Wednesday. The market reacted negatively to the initial news of the cease fire, but it has not made much of a bounce despite uncertainty over the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as the US remains insulated from developments in the Persian Gulf with US LNG exports already at their limit.
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