Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 3 cents and near 13.61. SMZ is near 394.6. BOZ is near 66.15. CZ is up 2 cents and near 6.77. WZ is up 8 cents and near 8.87. KWZ is up 8 cents and near 9.73. MWZ is up 10 cents and near 9.73.
Corn market is caught between talk of lower US supply and lower exports. Talk of Russia extending Ukraine export corridor weighed on World corn prices. Ukraine corn fob offers are 150 cents below US. Argentina is 100 cents lower. Brazil is 40 cents lower. US export commit is 23 pct of USDA goal. Since 1975 current pct of goal has averaged 31 pct. Trade est US 2022 corn crop at 13,885 mil bu vs USDA 13,944. 2022/23 carryout 1,124 vs USDA 1,219.
Wheat futures dropped after there was word that Russia might extended Ukraine export corridor. Russia, Germany and French wheat export prices are all below US. World July-Sep wheat trade is down 16 pct vs last year. US export commit is 2nd lowest in 50 years and only 3 mil bu of all time low in 2006!! HRW is down 33 pct vs ly. Trade est US 2022/23 wheat carryout near 554 vs USDA 610. WZ could be range bound between 8.50-9.50.
US soybean export commit is 8 pct above ly and 3rd highest ever. Still some feel final exports could drop below USDA goal due to lower China demand and higher 2023 SA supply. CONAB est Brazil 2023 acres up 3 pct from ly. CONAB also est a record yield near 53 bpa. Crop is estimated at a record 152 mmt. SX has dropped to key support before the USDA October supply and demand report. Some feel downside objective is near 12.75-13.00 and upside is 14.00. Trade est US 2022 soybean crop at 4,381 vs USDA 4,387. 2022/23 carryout 248 vs USDA 200.
US stocks are lower. Dollar is lower. Crude is higher and near $88. Gold, copper and sugar are lower. Coffee, cocoa and cotton are higher. Next week’s CPI data important to momentum of equities and commodities.
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