Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 5 cents and near 12.09. SMN is near 369.6. BON is near 43.50. CN is down 2 cents and near 4.57. WN is down 7 cents and near 6.15. KWN is down 16 cents and near 6.34. MWN is down 12 cents and near 7.02. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher on Saudi Arabia raising prices and impending Israel attack on Rafah. Gold is higher. Gold up on increase chances US Fed could lower rates in September.
SN is near 12.09. Trade est US soybean plantings near 31-33 pct. Recent Midwest rains may be slowing plantings. 10 day rains look to be in the Tennessee valley and Delta. Bears suggested farmers increase cash sales near 12.25-12.50 SN.SN support is near 12.00 and resistance is near 12.50. Trade could even positions before USDA report. US could raise US 2023/24 carryout due to lower exports and estimate US 2024/25 carryout closer to 485 mil bu. Board crush margins and soyoil pct of crush remain volatile until more is known about South America supply and China soybean import demand. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures were higher.
CN is near 4.57. Heavy rains fell over parts of MN,IA,WI and E TX, AR,MS. Trade est US corn plantings near 37-39 pct. Bears suggested farmers increase cash sales near 4.85.CN. Trade could even positions before USDA report. US could lower US 2023/24 carryout due to higher domestic demand and estimate US 2024/25 carryout closer to 2,245 mil bu. Lower South America supply and lower Ukraine export could support corn futures. Dalian corn futures were lower.
WN is near 6.15. KWN is near 6.34. MWN is near 7.02. Parts of dry W KS saw weekend rains. Most look for US winter wheat crop ratings to remain near 49 pct G/E. Russia forecast is drier. EU is wet especially west. US could estimate US 2024/25 carryout closer to 740 mil bu due to higher crop. Trade wondering if USDA will lower Russia and EU crop and lower global import demand. Talk US jobs data could help US Fed to cut rates in Feb could help pent up commodity demand.
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